Current Energy Sector News as of September 1, 2025: Oil Around $70 per Barrel, Rising Gas Prices in Europe, Extension of Gasoline Export Ban in Russia, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market.
The latest developments in the fuel and energy sector (FES) as of September 1, 2025, capture the attention of investors and market participants with a mix of trends. Two weeks after a fruitless summit between Russia and the U.S. in Alaska, geopolitical tensions remain high. Washington is demonstrating its readiness to increase pressure on buyers of Russian energy resources – a striking move in late August was the sharp increase in tariffs on the import of Indian goods, aimed at punishing Delhi for purchasing Russian oil. U.S. allies in Europe are proceeding with caution: the proposed new EU sanctions package is stalled due to disagreement among several countries regarding strict restrictions on Russian oil exports.
However, global energy markets are displaying relative resilience. Oil prices have gradually recovered to around $70 per barrel after a summer decline, reflecting a fragile balance between supply and demand. The European gas market remains tense: despite record gas storage volumes, the approaching winter is again prompting a surge in prices. Simultaneously, the energy transition is gathering pace – many countries are reporting record generation from renewable sources, although traditional fuels are still being utilized to ensure the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, authorities have extended the ban on gasoline exports, aiming to address fuel shortages: the measures taken are expected to stabilize the situation in the domestic oil products market in the coming weeks. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, coal, energy, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Prices Hover Around $70 Amid Supply Increase and Demand Slowdown
World oil prices at the beginning of September are holding relatively stable after a period of decline. The North Sea Brent is settled around $68–70 per barrel, returning to levels seen at the start of summer, while American WTI trades at $64–66. Although the current quotes are approximately 10% lower than a year ago, the recent uptick signals some market revival. Several fundamental factors influence oil price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Production Growth. The oil alliance continues to gradually increase supply in the market. In August, the total production quota for key participants in the deal was raised by about 0.5 million barrels per day; a comparable increase is expected in September. The planned lifting of restrictions that were in place during 2022–2023 is leading to higher global oil and petroleum product inventories, creating an oversupply.
- Record Production in the U.S. The United States, the largest oil producer, has unexpectedly reached a record production level. According to the EIA, in June, U.S. oil production exceeded a historic mark of 13.5 million bbl/d, adding additional supply to the global market.
- Weak Demand. The pace of global oil consumption growth remains muted. According to the revised forecast from the International Energy Agency, world demand is expected to increase by only about 0.7 million bbl/d in 2025 (in comparison, the growth exceeded 2.5 million in 2023). OPEC has also lowered its expectations to +1.2–1.3 million barrels per day for 2025. The reasons include a slowdown in the global economy and the impact of high prices in previous years that promoted energy conservation, in addition to weak industrial activity in China.
- Geopolitical Tension. A prolonged conflict and sanctions pressure add uncertainty to the market. The lack of progress in negotiations between Russia and the West means that strict restrictions on the export of Russian oil remain in place, supporting a certain risk premium in prices. On the other hand, the fact that occasional contacts between leaders slightly alleviates panic, causing quotes to fluctuate within a relatively narrow corridor – without sharp rallies or crashes.
Overall, the predominance of supply over demand keeps the global oil market in a state of slight surplus. Despite the recent rise, prices remain significantly below the peak values of 2022–2023. Several analysts predict that if current trends persist, the average Brent price could drop below $60 per barrel by early 2026. Further dynamics will depend on OPEC+ actions and the state of the global economy. In the meantime, relatively moderate oil prices help curb inflation in importing countries, even as they reduce revenues for exporters.
Gas Market: Full Storage Does Not Guarantee Price Stability
Greater attention on the gas market remains focused on Europe. EU countries accelerated natural gas injections into underground storage at an unprecedented rate all summer, preparing for the fall-winter season. By the end of August, the average filling level of European UGS facilities exceeded 92% – significantly above the target of 90% by early November. Such record storage levels had previously helped to contain prices. However, the approaching cold season is again provoking volatility in the gas market. In the absence of prospects for a swift resolution of the conflict, traders continue to factor in supply disruption risks into prices. An additional factor was the planned technical work at Norwegian fields in the North Sea at the end of August, temporarily reducing gas exports from Norway.
As a result, European gas prices turned upward. Near-month futures at the Dutch TTF hub climbed back above $400 per 1,000 cubic meters (approximately €38 per MWh), reaching a maximum in the past month. Prices increased from around $380 to $410 over the week, interrupting several weeks of gradual decline. Although current levels are not comparable to the record peaks of 2022, the market remains highly sensitive to any risk factors. European countries still need to compensate for the shortfall of Russian pipeline gas with record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), competing for LNG shipments with Asian buyers at high prices. Notably, the pace of storage replenishment this summer is already lower than last year’s (due to the closeness of storages to maximum capacity), limiting the possibilities for further price smoothing. Experts expect that uncertainty regarding future supplies and weather conditions will maintain high volatility in the gas market throughout the fall and winter.
International Politics: Stalemate in Dialogue, Sanctions Pressure Intensifies
The past two weeks following the unsuccessful Russia-U.S. summit have not brought progress in resolving the crisis - diplomatic dialogue has effectively reached a standstill. Instead, signs of further escalation of the sanctions regime have emerged. The U.S. has taken unprecedented measures: President Donald Trump ordered a 25 percentage point increase (to 50%) in tariffs on a number of goods from India as punishment for continued imports of Russian oil. This move demonstrates Washington's readiness to impose secondary sanctions on major consumers of Russian energy resources. India expressed regret and protest against the sharp increase in tariffs, stating that purchases of Russian oil are dictated by its national economic interests and cannot be quickly curtailed.
U.S. allies in Europe, on the other hand, are acting more cautiously. The proposed new EU sanctions package does not feature additional restrictions on imports of Russian energy resources – a number of EU countries effectively block the harshest measures, fearing harm to their own energy security. Thus, the sanctions confrontation in the energy sector remains tense: the U.S. is increasing pressure on buyers of Russian oil and gas, while Europe avoids extreme steps considering some economies' dependence on critical energy resource supplies.
Sergei Teryoshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, noted in an interview with OTR TV channel that the oil "price cap" is the least effective measure among all sanctions imposed since 2022. According to him, EU countries significantly follow bureaucratic logic: the adoption of each new package creates the appearance that "something is being done," regardless of the real effectiveness of such steps.
The expert emphasized that the key influence on compliance with the price cap comes not from Western restrictions, but from fundamental factors in the oil market: the dynamics of Urals prices generally mirror Brent with a discount of around $10–12. "Therefore, the price of Urals may drop below $50 per barrel only if Brent quotes are near $60. However, fundamental conditions for this have not yet formed, despite the slowdown in demand and increased OPEC+ quotas," Teryoshkin explained.
At the same time, media reports circulate about behind-the-scenes contacts between Moscow and Washington on energy issues that could form the basis for a broader deal. Sources indicate that discussions took place in August regarding potential agreements, such as the return of American ExxonMobil to the Sakhalin-1 project or equipment supplies from the U.S. for the Russian Arctic LNG-2 project. Even unconventional steps were proposed – including increasing exports of Russian nuclear fuel to American nuclear power plants. While there are no official confirmations of these discussions, the mere fact of such contacts indicates a search for ways to achieve some rapprochement in the energy sphere amid the overall political conflict.
Asia: India Defends Its Interests, China Increases Imports and Production
- India: Despite unprecedented external pressures, Delhi is not planning to abandon advantageous Russian energy resources. Indian leadership openly states that sharply reducing oil and fuel imports from Russia is unacceptable for the country's economy. Indian refineries continue to purchase Russian Urals oil at a significant discount – around $5 lower than Brent, allowing for increased supply volumes. Moreover, imports of Russian petroleum products (diesel, gasoline) remain high, fully meeting domestic demand. At the same time, the country is taking steps to reduce long-term dependence on hydrocarbon imports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on August 15, Independence Day, the launch of a large-scale program for exploring deepwater oil and gas deposits. The state-owned company ONGC has already begun drilling ultra-deep wells on the Andaman Sea shelf, and the initial results are regarded as promising. The goal of the program is to uncover new hydrocarbon reserves and strengthen India’s energy independence. Additionally, on August 21, during a meeting of foreign ministers in Moscow, India and Russia agreed to deepen trade and economic cooperation, clearly indicating that New Delhi intends to maintain energy ties with Moscow despite external pressures.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also actively using the situation to strengthen its energy security. Beijing has not joined sanctions against Moscow and has increased its imports of Russian energy resources at reduced prices. According to China’s customs statistics, in 2024, China imported about 213 million tons of oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas – 1.8% and 6.2% more than the previous year. In 2025, supplies from Russia continue to grow (although their pace slowed somewhat due to overall economic stagnation). Reports indicate that in August, supplies of Urals oil to China reached about 75 thousand barrels per day, partially offsetting the reduction of imports from Indian buyers amid American pressure. Simultaneously, China is ramping up its domestic oil and gas production, seeking to reduce reliance on external sources. Despite record investments in renewable energy, the country still relies on traditional hydrocarbon resources to meet basic demand. The Chinese government is investing substantial resources in geological exploration and the development of hard-to-access deposits, advancing new extraction projects. Thus, the two largest consumers in Asia – India and China – continue to play a key role in global raw materials markets, combining import growth with the development of their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Resources
The global transition to low-carbon energy continues to maintain its momentum. In several countries, record electricity generation levels from renewable sources are being reported. For 2024, total generation from solar and wind power plants in the European Union has, for the first time, surpassed output from coal and gas-fired power plants, and this trend continues in 2025. The commissioning of new capacities increases the share of "green" energy in the energy balance while the use of coal is gradually declining (following a temporary rise during the 2022–2023 crisis). In the U.S., renewable energy is also setting records – in the first half of 2025, more than 30% of electricity was generated from renewable energy sources, with total generation from solar and wind plants surpassing output from coal-fired power plants for the first time. China, being the world leader in installed renewable energy capacity, adds dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind generators annually, regularly updating its own records of "green" generation.
Massive investments are accelerating the energy transition. According to the IEA, global investments in energy are expected to exceed $3.3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of this amount allocated to renewable energy projects, power grid modernization, and energy storage systems. In the U.S., about 33 GW of new solar power plants are planned for commissioning within a year – a record figure, comprising nearly half of all generating capacities to be commissioned. Nevertheless, energy systems still require traditional power plants to maintain grid stability. The increasing share of solar and wind creates new challenges for balancing: during periods of reduced solar and wind generation, backup capacities or accumulated energy resources come to the rescue. Thus, despite unprecedented growth in renewable energy, traditional resources continue to play an essential role in ensuring reliable energy supply.
Coal: Resilient Global Demand Despite Climate Agenda
Despite efforts to decarbonize the economy, coal maintains a significant position in the global energy balance. In 2025, global demand for coal remains close to record levels. The main drivers are Asia, primarily China and India, where coal-fired power plants and industries (metallurgy, cement) support economic growth. For these countries, coal is still the most accessible and reliable energy source capable of meeting the base load of energy systems. According to industry analysts, the total commissioning of new coal capacities worldwide could reach approximately 80 GW by the end of 2025, making this year one of the most successful for the industry in the past decade. While many developed economies are accelerating their phase-out of coal (following a temporary increase in its use during the crisis of 2022), stable demand from developing countries is sustaining the global coal market. This situation underscores the gap between climate goals and real needs: the share of coal is not decreasing quickly enough while remaining substantial for energy reliability and availability.
Russian Oil Products Market: Government Measures Cool Prices, Fuel Surplus Expected
In the internal fuel sector of Russia, an active policy was launched in August to normalize the pricing situation. In the first half of the month, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline and diesel surged to record levels, causing significant concern for the government. The main reasons for this spike include seasonal demand growth (sowing and harvesting campaigns), planned repairs at several major oil refineries, a weakening ruble, and high profitability from exporting petroleum products amid rising global prices. In some remote regions, local fuel shortages arose, increasing pressure on retail prices and creating a risk of supply disruptions at gas stations.
The authorities responded promptly to prevent the crisis from escalating. From August 15, a temporary ban on gasoline exports was introduced (initially until the end of the month) to saturate the domestic market. At the end of August, the government extended this ban: from September 1 to 30, it will apply to all exporters (including oil companies), while for traders and intermediaries, it will remain in effect until October 31. Concurrently, relevant agencies adjusted the price damping mechanism – the system of compensations for oil producers amid high export prices. The formula for calculating the dampening was recalibrated retroactively from August 1, 2025, leading to increased payments to oil refiners. These measures are intended to make supplies of gasoline and diesel more attractive for companies compared to exports. According to official statements, the steps taken have already helped slow the price increase and ensure adequate fuel supply within the country.
Industry experts, however, warn that administrative measures provide only a temporary effect. Direct export bans and manual price regulation can only dampen the price surge for a short period. Sustainable stabilization requires market instruments: a more flexible damping mechanism, targeted subsidies for fuel delivery to remote regions, and improvements in tax policy. Preliminary forecasts suggest that with a combination of these steps, the pace of gasoline price growth can be reduced to a level below overall inflation by the end of the year. However, oil companies are expected to face a challenging period: a tight monetary policy (in a bid to contain inflation) and ongoing export restrictions on fuel could compress their margins.
Nevertheless, the situation is gradually stabilizing. The government expects that by September, gasoline production volumes will exceed domestic consumption, eliminating shortages and cooling prices. Stocks of petroleum products at storage facilities have reached record levels (totaling over 5 million tons of gasoline and diesel), fully covering the needs of the domestic market. Control over the fuel sector remains at the highest level: responsible agencies are preparing new proposals to prevent the recurrence of a similar crisis in the future. As a result, the Russian fuel market is gradually returning to balance after the disruptions of the beginning of the month.
Corporate News: Dividends, Contracts, and New Projects
The largest companies in the Russian fuel and energy sector continue to implement their development strategies despite external pressure. Significant events at the corporate level are occurring, which are important for investors and shareholders:
- Novatek held a board meeting on August 21 to discuss dividend payments for the first half of 2025. With solid financial results (including high domestic gas demand and LNG export), the company is poised to reward shareholders with generous interim dividends. The market reacted positively to these expectations, viewing them as a sign of the business’s financial stability.
- Gazprom Neft announced its decision to recommend a dividend payment of 17.3 rubles per share for the first half of 2025 (this decision was made at the board meeting on August 25). At current stock prices, this equates to an annual yield of around 3.3%. Despite a slight decrease in profits this year, the company demonstrates its willingness to share profits with shareholders, which supports investor confidence in the industry.
- Rosneft reported on the successful advancement of key extraction projects, despite a nearly 70% drop in net profit in the first half of 2025 (year-on-year) due to low oil prices. In Eastern Siberia, the company brought a new oil field to design capacity, launched as part of the strategic "Vostok Oil" project. Achieving planned oil and associated gas production targets at this asset in the second half of the year will increase the company’s overall production volume. Additionally, Rosneft began gas production at a new well site in the Suzunskoye field – this marks progression in developing Eastern Siberian clusters intended to offset declines in production from aging fields in Western Siberia.
- Gazprom is strengthening its presence in Asian markets. In August, the corporation signed a new long-term contract for the supply of liquefied natural gas to one of the major consumers in the Asia-Pacific region. This will allow Gazprom’s Far East LNG facilities to increase their loading and partially compensate for the reduction in pipeline gas exports to Europe. Simultaneously, the Russian government is supporting the search for new partners: joint oil and gas projects between Russia and India in the Arctic are being discussed at bilateral meetings. If these initiatives are realized, domestic companies will gain access to additional investments and markets, while India will benefit from long-term resources.
The collective news indicates that leading players in the Russian fuel and energy sector are not slowing down their development programs despite sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty. Investors perceive the activity of these companies as a sign of the sector's adaptability: new fields are being launched, dividends are being paid, contracts are being signed in bypassing traditional directions. This instills moderate optimism and confirms that the fuel and energy sector remains a backbone of the economy and an attractive area for investments. In the long term, modernization, technological import substitution, and the reorientation of export flows to Asia and the Middle East may lay the foundation for a new phase of growth in the Russian FES, when external restrictions ease.
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