Economics News — Thursday, August 28, 2025: EU Sanctions and Preliminary U.S. GDP

Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, August 28, 2025: EU Sanctions, GDP Data from Switzerland and the USA, ECB Minutes, US Labor Market, Gas Reserves, and Reports from Major Companies. Detailed Overview for Investors.

Thursday promises to be one of the busiest days of the week for financial markets. Key economic indicators will be released in several regions, while the political arena will see discussions about new EU sanctions. In the morning, investors will evaluate GDP data from Switzerland, while in the afternoon, the spotlight will shift to the Eurozone (sentiment indices and ECB minutes), and the USA will release preliminary GDP estimates for the second quarter along with other important indicators. In addition to macroeconomic data, a deluge of corporate reports from major companies is expected. Such a concentrated flow of information may increase market volatility, requiring investors to pay special attention and react promptly.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

• August 28–30 – Meeting of EU Foreign Ministers on the 19th package of sanctions
• 10:00 (Switzerland) – GDP for Q2 2025
• 12:00 (Eurozone) – Consumer Confidence Index (August) and Inflation Expectations
• 14:30 – ECB July Meeting Minutes
• 15:30 (USA) – GDP for Q2 2025 (preliminary estimate) and Initial Jobless Claims
• 17:00 (USA) – Pending Home Sales (July)
• 17:30 (USA) – Natural Gas Inventories
• 18:00 (USA) – Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (August)
• August 28–29 – BTC Asia 2025 Conference (Hong Kong)

Europe: New Sanctions and Economic Indicators

On August 28, the Foreign Ministers of EU countries will convene in Brussels to discuss yet another, the 19th, package of sanctions against Russia. Additional restrictions regarding technology exports and an expansion of the sanctions list are expected to be considered. The results of these consultations are crucial for the markets: a harsh sanctions package could intensify pressure on the shares of European companies doing business in Russia and on Russian assets (the ruble, eurobonds), while a postponement or easing of measures could reduce geopolitical tensions.

Economic statistics from Europe on this day are also drawing attention. Switzerland will release GDP data for the second quarter of 2025. The Swiss economy is known for its stability, but weak demand in Europe and a strong franc may have slowed its growth in the second quarter. A zero or negative GDP growth could raise alarm about external influences, while a confident increase in the indicator would strengthen the franc and affirm the effectiveness of anti-inflation measures.

At 12:00 MSK, the European Commission will publish the final consumer confidence and inflation expectations figures for August. If the Consumer Confidence Index remains at low levels, it indicates potential risks for weak domestic demand in the fall. The dynamics of inflation expectations are also crucial for the ECB: a decrease would strengthen arguments for pausing interest rate hikes, while an increase would complicate efforts to combat inflation.

ECB: July Meeting Minutes

After midday, market participants will shift their focus to the European Central Bank. At 14:30 MSK, the minutes from the ECB's latest meeting (July) will be released, revealing details of discussions on monetary policy. Investors will analyze the document for "hawkish" or "doveish" signals. If the minutes show that many Governing Council members advocated further interest rate hikes, expectations for another tightening in the fall will increase – potentially supporting the euro and raising yields on European bonds. Conversely, soft wording and an emphasis on risks of economic slowdown will be perceived by the market as a sign of the nearing conclusion of the rate hike cycle in the Eurozone.

USA: GDP, Labor Market, and Real Estate

In the USA, the key release of the day will be the revised GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2025. The initial assessment showed solid growth for the US economy (around 3% year-over-year), indicating robust consumption and investment. Confirmation or improvement of this figure in the second estimate will bolster confidence in a "soft landing" scenario for the economy, while a downward revision will heighten fears of a recession. Simultaneously, at 15:30, weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits will be released – a timely indicator for the labor market. If the number of claims has significantly increased to a multi-month high, it signals a cooling labor market; stability at a low level, on the other hand, emphasizes solid employment. The combination of GDP data and labor market figures will largely set the tone for expectations regarding further actions from the Federal Reserve: strong growth alongside low unemployment will increase the probability of maintaining a hawkish policy, while signs of economic slowdown will lead the regulator to consider pausing.

At 17:00 MSK, the monthly figure for pending home sales for July will be released. This indicator reflects the number of transactions in the secondary housing market and provides an assessment of the state of American real estate. An increase in the number of transactions would indicate a resurgence in buyer activity (possibly due to stabilization in mortgage rates or falling prices), while a decline would continue the trend of cooling in the housing market, signaling buyer caution amid high rates.

Energy and Industry: Gas Reserves and Kansas Fed Index

In the second half of the day, attention will turn to the raw materials and industrial sectors. At 17:30 MSK, the US Department of Energy will publish statistics on natural gas inventories for the week, demonstrating the pace of replenishment before the winter season. A substantial increase in reserves relative to the norm may temporarily weaken gas prices (benefiting large consumers and European fuel importers). Conversely, if gas injections lag behind seasonal averages, it could support rising energy prices, intensifying inflationary pressures.

Almost concurrently, at 18:00 MSK, the August Kansas City Fed Business Activity Index will be released. This indicator reflects the state of manufacturing in the central US states. A negative index value will confirm a widespread decline in the manufacturing sector, while an unexpected increase into positive territory will indicate a heterogeneous situation and mitigate fears of a deep industrial recession.

BTC Asia Conference: Cryptocurrencies and an Unexpected Moderator

The BTC Asia 2025 conference dedicated to cryptocurrencies kicks off in Hong Kong. Particular attention has been drawn to the participation of Eric Trump (son of the former US president) as a discussion moderator. Observers expect signals regarding the regulation of the industry, and any loud statements could temporarily impact the mood in the crypto industry.

Corporate Reports: USA and Asia

• Best Buy – the largest electronics retailer in the USA. Their report will reveal how demand for electronics is coping with high rates and competition from online retail; investors will pay attention to sales dynamics and inventory levels.
• Dollar General – a leading discount store chain. Their results will serve as a barometer for low-income consumers: revenue growth will confirm that shoppers are increasingly switching to a more economical shopping format amid declining real incomes.
• Li Auto – a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. Company figures reflect the growth rates of EV sales in China. A steady increase in sales volume and revenue will confirm high demand for EVs, while a slowdown will signal market saturation.

• Dell Technologies – one of the world's largest PC and server manufacturers. Dell's results will show how the company is balancing a decline in PC demand with a persistent need for data center equipment.
• Marvell Technology – a semiconductor manufacturer for data centers, 5G, and automotive electronics. Marvell's report will serve as an indicator of the state of the global chip market outside the AI segment. Strong sales will confirm steady demand for infrastructure chips, while weak results will intensify fears of oversupply in certain segments.
• Affirm – an American fintech service for installments. Affirm's data will reflect demand for credit purchases: rapid growth in clients and disbursements will indicate high consumer appetite, while a slowdown or increase in delinquencies will highlight problems in lending.
• Gap Inc. – a major clothing retailer. Gap's report will reflect the state of retail in the clothing sector: growth in comparable sales and inventory optimization will suggest successful measures to attract customers, while a decline in sales or excess inventory will emphasize weak demand.

Russian Market: Half-Year Results of Companies

On August 28, several issuers from the Moscow Exchange will publish financial results for the first half of the year. This includes discount retailer Fix Price, holding AFK Sistema, hydropower company RusHydro, insurance provider Renaissance Insurance, fertilizer manufacturer Akron, and petrochemical company Nizhnekamskneftekhim. These releases provide a snapshot of the state of key sectors of the economy. Strong reports (for example, profit growth for Fix Price or increased output at RusHydro) will support investor interest in stocks, while weak results will force a reassessment of perspectives in certain market segments.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Focus On

• Data from the USA: Confirmation of high GDP growth in the USA for the second quarter along with low jobless claims will strengthen hawkish sentiments regarding the Fed rate, while weak numbers may revive recession fears and expectations for policy easing.
• Signals from Europe: The tone of the ECB minutes (hawkish or dovish) will determine the dynamics of the euro and European bonds, while consumer confidence and inflation expectation indicators will show public confidence levels.
• EU Sanctions: The outcome of discussions on the new sanctions package against Russia poses a geopolitical risk. Stringent measures may worsen market sentiment in Europe and Russia, while the absence of new restrictions could reduce tensions.
• Corporate Reports: The abundance of corporate releases may bring localized spikes in volatility. In the morning, retail (Best Buy, Dollar General) will capture attention as an indicator of consumer spending; in the evening, technology (Dell, Marvell) will be key for assessing industry trends.