"Everyone Survives as Best They Can"
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association and member of the expert council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, clarified to "RG" that this situation pertains to gasoline trading on the exchange, where prices are always determined by the balance of supply and demand.
The record figures reported by the St. Petersburg Exchange are associated with an insufficient supply of AI-92 gasoline and concurrently increased demand during the high season.
"This is the exchange; if a lot of 92 is 'poured' in, then of course, the price will drop. Right now, everyone is surviving as best they can," the source stated.
Earlier, "RG" reported that the shortage of gasoline in the market is partly due to unplanned repairs at oil refineries (ORFs) linked to attacks by Ukrainian drones. These repairs have led to a reduction in fuel production volumes.
Another factor influencing the development of the "gasoline crisis" is the reduction of subsidies to oil producers under the damping mechanism. However, this issue is not so straightforward. Currently, discussions are underway about the possibility of raising the deviation threshold from indicators in the fuel damping mechanism, Gusev continues, which means producers may receive retroactive compensation. "Therefore, it is unlikely that one can currently speak of this mechanism having an impact on the rise of wholesale gasoline prices," he explained.
"In the situation with rising gasoline prices on the exchange, everything is quite simple," the expert emphasizes. "The producer considers such a cost acceptable to cover production costs. If it were too expensive for gas stations, they would not purchase gasoline at such a price, they would stop operations and say, 'We can't work like this anymore.' This means they believe it makes sense to sell gasoline at retail at this price. The same goes for consumers: if they found it too expensive, they would switch to other types of fuel. The key question here is—if it's too expensive for you, you either don’t buy or postpone the purchase."
Daily fluctuations on the exchange are situational, and they cannot be used to judge the overall situation in the Russian fuel market, asserts Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research.
"You can only talk about a decrease when the trend remains sustained for at least five trading sessions on the exchange. So far, we have not observed this," the expert points out.
The prices of gasoline may stabilize after the completion of unplanned repairs at oil processing plants or at the end of the high-demand season, which is approximately the end of September.Meanwhile, according to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the Open Oil Market fuel marketplace, a critical factor in the fluctuation of wholesale prices, regardless of fuel production dynamics, is the size of the subsidies. He cited data from the Ministry of Finance indicating that over the first seven months of this year, payments under the damping mechanism decreased by 46% compared to the same period in 2024 (to 604.6 billion rubles).
"The lower the volume of subsidies, the lower the profitability of oil refining: according to the latest available data from Rosstat, the net profit of Russian oil refineries fell by more than 60% in the first five months of 2025 (to 521.5 billion rubles)," he stated.
Hence, the increase in exchange prices partially offsets the losses incurred by oil producers in the first half of the year, the expert continues.
"This picture would be observed even if the production of oil products remained stable," Sergey Tereshkin asserts.
Overall, the price records we are witnessing now may indicate that the situation with wholesale prices is somewhat out of control, says Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at FG "Finam." "The main reason for the price increase is the combination of high-demand season and reduced production due to attacks on refineries," he confirms.
When Will Gasoline Prices Decrease?
In response to our question about when to expect a decrease in gasoline prices, Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, notes that it will depend on the situation regarding emergency shutdowns at oil refineries.
"Unfortunately, our forecast is unfavorable—most likely, we will have to wait at least another month for a real decrease in prices. At the same time, as we said, the degree of uncertainty is very high, as it is impossible to currently predict the level of production," he notes.
According to him, gasoline prices will continue to rise at least until mid-September.
"This is a consequence of the market imbalance amidst planned and unplanned shutdowns at refineries. The situation with the exchange will not affect the market—it’s more about organizational issues," the expert indicates.
"Stabilization of the situation can be expected either after the completion of unplanned repairs at affected refineries or at the end of the high-demand season (i.e., approximately from the end of September). The activation of imports from Belarus may also reduce tension," predicts Sergey Kaufman, analyst at FG "Finam."
"Gasoline prices will stabilize in September in any case," Dmitry Gusev is confident. "This is a traditional situation: we always have issues with gasoline prices in the summer, and silence in September. Nothing new, nothing extraordinary."
What About Retail Prices?
Retail prices are primarily targeted based on inflation, so the situation on the exchange usually does not affect them, explains Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association, member of the expert council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition Dmitry Gusev.
"The cost of gasoline at most gas stations will be determined by the level of inflation," the expert states.
At the same time, according to Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, the rise in gasoline prices will exceed the average inflation rate due to a sharp increase in excise taxes from January 1.
Independent gas stations could help ensure competition in the fuel market, but, as Sergey Frolov notes, a comprehensive set of tools is needed to support them, "since there is currently not only a problem of low margins but also, essentially, a still prohibitive refinancing rate."
"The rise in exchange prices will reflect on the retail situation: the increase in retail gasoline prices will outpace the overall inflation rates until the cold season arrives," predicts Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the Open Oil Market fuel marketplace.
Due to force majeure circumstances, it can already be said with high confidence that the rise in retail prices by the end of the year will be above the overall inflation level, asserts Sergey Kaufman, analyst at FG "Finam."
"We expect that retail prices may increase by 8-9% by the end of the year," is the figure stated by the source.
Source: RG.RU
