Key Economic Events for Thursday, November 21, 2024
Central Bank Decisions
Central Bank of Turkey (2:00 PM MSK):
The Central Bank of Turkey is expected to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation. This decision could strengthen the Turkish lira and impact trade relations with the European Union, particularly in the energy and agriculture sectors.
Central Bank of South Africa (4:00 PM MSK):
The rate decision may significantly affect the South African rand and emerging markets. This is crucial for European and U.S. investors with interests in Africa or in commodities tied to South African markets.
Economic Data
Jobless Claims (U.S., 4:30 PM MSK):
This metric reflects the state of the U.S. labor market. A decline in claims could strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially affecting export competitiveness and commodity prices in Europe.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November, U.S., 4:30 PM MSK):
This index indicates activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. A rise could signal economic recovery, which may boost demand for European exports such as industrial machinery and raw materials.
Existing Home Sales (U.S., October, 6:00 PM MSK):
A key indicator of the housing market's health in the U.S. A strong housing market could further strengthen the dollar, influencing global investment flows.
Consumer Confidence Index (EU, November, 6:00 PM MSK):
This index highlights consumer sentiment and confidence in the EU economy. A decline could lower demand for U.S. and global exports, particularly in consumer goods.
Natural Gas Inventories (U.S., 6:30 PM MSK):
Changes in U.S. gas inventories could influence global energy markets. Significant shifts might affect European gas prices, especially during the winter season.
Corporate Reports
Baidu Inc (BIDU):
Expected revenue decline of 0.7%. This may influence investor sentiment in the tech sector, impacting global tech market trends.
PDD Holdings Inc (PDD):
Projected revenue growth of 53.4% reflects the strong performance of Chinese technology companies, drawing investor attention globally.
Deere & Company (DE):
An anticipated 39.4% drop in revenue could indicate challenges in the global agricultural sector, with potential downstream effects on U.S. and European machinery exports.
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ):
Forecasted 6.5% revenue growth highlights stability in the U.S. retail sector, which is important for consumer confidence and spending trends in Europe.
VK:
VK’s Q3 2024 financial results will provide insights into the IT sector’s performance in emerging markets, indirectly influencing global tech investment strategies.
Russian Aquaculture (AQUA):
An extraordinary general meeting will address a Q3 dividend payout of 20 RUB/share. While specific to Russian markets, trends in dividend payments can signal broader investment attitudes in the global aquaculture sector.
Ross Stores Inc (ROST):
An expected 4.6% revenue increase signals stability in the U.S. retail industry, which could impact European retailers through competition or market trends.
Gap Inc (GAP):
A modest revenue growth of 1.1% suggests steady recovery in the U.S. apparel retail sector, with implications for global fashion markets.
Intuit Inc (INTU):
Projected 5.4% revenue growth highlights stable demand for financial management software, which could drive tech sector optimism in both Europe and the U.S.
Impact on Europe and the U.S.
- Turkey and South Africa: Central bank decisions in these countries could shift demand for European and U.S. exports, particularly in energy and industrial goods.
- U.S. Economic Data: A stronger dollar resulting from robust job and housing market indicators could reduce the competitiveness of European exports.
- EU Consumer Confidence: Weak sentiment in Europe might dampen demand for U.S. exports and influence trade balances.
- Energy Markets: U.S. natural gas inventory changes could affect European energy prices and security.
Investor Recommendations
Commodities:
- Oil and Gas: Monitor central bank decisions in Turkey and South Africa, as these could impact emerging market currencies and, subsequently, global commodity prices.
Currency Markets:
- U.S. Dollar: Economic data, such as jobless claims and manufacturing indices, could strengthen the dollar, influencing currency pairs involving the euro and emerging market currencies.
Tech Sector:
- Baidu Inc (BIDU): Watch for potential declines in investor confidence tied to weak earnings.
- PDD Holdings Inc (PDD): Positive growth may boost global tech market sentiment.
Agriculture:
- Deere & Company (DE): Anticipated revenue declines signal potential weakness in the agricultural machinery sector, with implications for related industries.
Retail Sector:
- BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ): Positive retail trends in the U.S. could signal recovery momentum beneficial for European exporters.
Technology Solutions:
- Intuit Inc (INTU): Continued demand for financial management software highlights the resilience of this segment in developed markets.
November 21, 2024, is packed with significant economic and corporate events that could influence global markets. Investors in Europe and the U.S. are advised to closely monitor central bank decisions, economic data, and corporate earnings to make informed decisions in an evolving market landscape.
