... second week of September, Russia's seaborne oil exports reached 3.25 million barrels per day, comparable to 2021 levels. The price cap is not effective, as noted by officials not only in Russia but also in Europe and the U.S. For over a year, Urals prices have been above $60 per barrel, influenced by global benchmarks and the discount for Russian oil. This discount, which peaked at $34 per barrel in March 2022, is currently estimated at $10–13 per barrel. Attempts by the U.S. to restrict Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers were somewhat effective, but Russia adapted quickly by ...

... in the Asian market Iran is offering oil at substantial discounts, making it attractive to China. As the primary oil supplier to the Middle Kingdom, Russia may face a reduction in its market share. In 2024, China purchased about 90.4 million tons of oil from Russia (+2.2% year-on-year), but increasing competition could hinder further growth. Price pressure The rise in illegal shipments creates an excess supply, which could lower global prices. For Russia, this means the need to reassess its pricing policy to maintain its position in China. Political risks Iranian sanction circumvention schemes are heightening geopolitical tensions. Should the international community intensify ...

... balance offers insights into global demand, particularly for industrial and consumer goods. Strong exports support commodity prices, while weak trade data may raise concerns about the global economy. Eurozone Industrial Production: As a key indicator of economic health in the region, Eurozone industrial production ... ... European stock markets. Strong production supports the region’s economy, while a decline may indicate broader challenges. U.S. Oil Inventories: The EIA’s report on oil inventories impacts oil prices, with high inventories potentially weighing on prices ...

... Additionally, global industrial production trends reflected in Eurozone data could shape demand expectations for U.S. exports and impact manufacturing activity. Impact on Investors Energy Markets: The Baker Hughes rig count will provide early signals on oil and gas production trends, influencing energy prices globally. Investors in energy stocks and commodities should monitor these changes closely. Currency Markets: UK GDP data may drive movements in the British pound, while Eurozone industrial production figures could impact the euro. Both will have implications ...

... disruptions in the export of Black Sea oil (including suspensions of shipments of Azeri BTC in the Turkish port of Ceyhan), which have restricted supply in the market, are also providing additional support. On the other hand, the growth potential for oil prices is limited by signs of slowing global economic activity. Mixed macroeconomic data from the US and China lead to forecasts of moderate demand for energy carriers in the second half of the year. Many investment banks maintain a cautious forecast for Brent at year-end—around $60 per ...