... of gasoline and jet fuel in major economies, further fueling oil demand. Geopolitical risks and sanctions. The U.S. administration is ramping up pressure on Moscow. At the end of July, President Donald Trump shortened the deadline for resolving the Ukraine conflict: an ultimatum (~10 days) expires on August 8, and the president indicated he is "unconcerned" about potential negative market reactions to new stringent measures against Russia. This pertains to the imposition of 100% tariffs ...

... Stability of Foreign Policy Situation The early directives of the new US administration do not directly impact Russia, reducing tension and supporting the ruble's exchange rate. Geopolitical Improvements The prospects of upcoming negotiations regarding Ukraine are lowering the risk premium and boosting investor confidence in the Russian currency. Actions of the Central Bank From January 15 to February 6, the Bank of Russia is increasing currency interventions in the market as part of its budgetary regulations,...

... EU starts filling its underground gas storage facilities before the new heating season," he said. He noted that this year, attention is focused on geopolitics, as there is still no clarity about whether contracts for Russian gas supplies via Ukraine will be extended. A decision on this issue is expected soon, as current contracts are set to expire at the end of December. "Gas prices could rise further from current levels by the end of the season, unless there are any unforeseen events,...

... either temporary or permanent. "If they fail to secure an exception by December 20, U.S. sanctions, which have extraterritorial reach, will force European companies to comply and halt payments to Gazprombank. At that point, the continuation of Ukraine’s transit agreement with Gazprom beyond January 1 will no longer matter. Deliveries to Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary will likely cease," Yushkov explains. Turkey, Serbia, and Moldova—being "friendly" countries—could bypass ...

... potential negotiations between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. According to CNN, a phone call between the leaders of the two countries could take place a few days after Trump's inauguration. The discussion is expected to address the resolution of the Ukraine conflict, as well as the possibility of a personal meeting in the upcoming months. Preparations for this call began several weeks ago; however, the exact date of the conversation has not yet been determined. Economists interviewed by “Ъ FM” ...