... effectiveness depends not on the number of vessels on the list, but on the EU and G7 countries' ability to control insurance, servicing, and loading of these vessels. In practice, the 'shadow fleet' is structured through third jurisdictions, and its high redundancy reduces vulnerability. Even if part of the fleet drops out, Russia will find a replacement—especially as rates rise and logistics become more expensive," Kasatkin noted. He added that the decision to lower the price ceiling to ~$47.6 is an important signal. This will increase the discount of Urals to Brent, especially if global prices rise. "However,...

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