... about the impact of climate conditions on business. Investor Recommendations Closely monitor the outcomes of the day's key events: the Central Bank of Russia's decision and regulator comments will set direction for the ruble and local assets, while statistics from the USA (durable goods orders) and Europe (IFO, sales) will clarify the trajectories of the largest economies. Analyze corporate reports in the context of sectors: strong results from consumer companies (e.g., Colgate-Palmolive or Newell) ...

... economy: according to recently published data, China’s GDP growth in Q2 was around 5.2% YoY, which is slower than the pace at the beginning of the year. The cooling is attributed to cautious behavior from Chinese consumers and weak export demand. Statistics indicate a decline in retail sales and investment activity—a sign that the post-pandemic recovery is entering a more challenging phase. Beijing announced a series of targeted economic support measures (stimulating domestic demand, tax benefits ...

... by investors and economists, and also analyze a real case when the LEI helped predict the global financial crisis. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a comprehensive indicator used to forecast economic developments. The index combines several key statistics that are believed to predict future economic activity. For example, a rise or fall in the index can indicate whether economic growth is likely to accelerate or slow in the coming months. The main components of the index are: The index includes ...

... quota. According to the current terms of the deal, Russia's quota should increase from the current 8.98 million barrels per day to 9.45 million barrels per day (excluding gas condensate and light hydrocarbons, which are included in broader production statistics). For comparison, in October 2024, Russia's oil production volume was 8.95 million bpd. It is currently difficult to believe that production will exceed the 9.5 million bpd mark by the end of next year. Overall, the risks of an early breakdown ...

... could be the shortage of high-octane fuels. Supporting this theory is the fact that the total output of petroleum products in Russia fell by 2.4% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2024. As of the time Rosstat closed its weekly fuel production statistics, automotive gasoline production in Russia had decreased to 106,000 tons per day (Rosstat data for the week of May 13–19, 2024). For comparison, according to CDU TEK, daily automotive gasoline consumption in Russia in 2023 was 104,000 tons....