... inflation through wages and services. JGB Yields: The market may price in a gradual increase in yields, reflecting a reassessment of the interest rate trajectory. For the Bank of Japan, the key will be balancing support for economic growth and controlling inflation expectations. The Yen and the Currency Market Surprise Factor: GDP forecasts exceeding expectations traditionally strengthen the yen through a reassessment of rate expectations. Yield Differential: Convergence with global rates may narrow the yen's discount ...

... The reason for this monetary policy easing was a further decline in inflation: annual price growth has dropped to approximately 7–8%, significantly lower than the peaks earlier in the year. The Bank of Russia noted in its accompanying statement that inflation expectations among the population are decreasing and consumer demand remains subdued, creating room for cheaper credit. The regulator also improved the inflation forecast for the end of 2025 and allowed for the possibility of further rate cuts if current ...

... data rather than rush into rate cuts. On the other hand, the sticky inflation signals from the services PMI reinforce the case for remaining cautious and potentially keeping interest rates at a restrictive level until there is clearer evidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path. It is widely expected that the Fed will hold its benchmark rate steady at upcoming meetings, emphasising a data-dependent approach. Market expectations for rate cuts later in the year have been dialled back slightly, as officials have signalled that taming inflation ...

... conditions for easing monetary policy. It is noteworthy that the Bank of Russia updated its inflation forecast for 2025, anticipating it in the range of 6-7% given the continuation of a tight policy. Meanwhile, core inflation remains elevated, and public inflation expectations increased in August to approximately 13.5%. Thus, market participants do not rule out that the Bank of Russia will act cautiously. The release of fresh CPI data this evening will help shape clearer expectations regarding the regulator's next ...

... inflation in Russia has stabilized after a surge in the first half of the year: the current annual price growth rate is estimated at around 7-8%, and the regulator expects this figure to fall closer to 6% by the year's end. In August, however, public inflation expectations have slightly risen again, which requires caution from the Central Bank in its further decisions. The Russian stock market reacted to the rate cut with a significant rise. The MOEX index surged in response to inflows of liquidity and improved ...