... period last year, where daily purchases were 124,000 barrels, according to Platts data. Reuters claims that India had to increase its imports from the U.S. due to a decrease in purchases from Russia. Allegedly, India started to turn away from Russian oil to avoid U.S. sanctions, which at the beginning of the year included a new batch of shadow fleet vessels in the sanctions list. Bloomberg also wrote off Russian oil, stating that by February 2025, India had brought its purchases of Russian oil to the lowest level since ...

... Risks and Sanctions: President Donald Trump has escalated rhetoric concerning Moscow, presenting an ultimatum to resolve the conflict in Ukraine within approximately ten days. He has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russian exports and secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil if progress is not made. These statements have increased uncertainty regarding global supplies and added a risk premium to oil prices. OPEC+ Actions: OPEC+ member countries continue to gradually increase supply. In August, total production quotas ...

... a complete cessation of trade with the RF. Unjust Criticism: According to officials, Washington's grievances are unfounded, particularly considering that Western partners had previously encouraged Indian purchases from Russia to stabilize the global oil market. In response to the sanctions, India is contemplating a set of actions. Officials hint at potential retaliatory tariffs on American goods, as well as enhanced cooperation with alternative oil suppliers, such as countries in the Middle East or Latin America, to reduce dependency ...

... Bank of Russia decides to ease monetary policy, could lead to its weakening. Final forecast: Based on all these factors, the dollar to ruble exchange rate by the end of 2024 is expected to be in the range of 93 to 100 rubles per dollar. With stable oil prices and no new sanctions, the rate will likely be closer to 93-95 rubles. In a more negative scenario, with falling oil prices and increasing sanctions pressure, the rate may come closer to 100 rubles per dollar. Comment by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market: ...

.... Political risks Iranian sanction circumvention schemes are heightening geopolitical tensions. Should the international community intensify scrutiny on shadow supplies, it could lead to stricter sanction pressures that would also affect the Russian oil sector. Potential sanctions against China If the U.S. or EU decide to intensify pressure on China for illegal imports of Iranian oil, it could impact supply chains, including Russian oil, increasing costs and risks for exporters. What Should Investors Pay Attention To?...