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Why the ban on gasoline exports did not stop the rise in gas station prices
... in September, they had approached their 2023 highs in the last week of August.
Falling crude oil prices, which dropped from over $80 to $71 per barrel, are now driving exchange rates downward. Although oil prices have a delayed impact on domestic fuel costs, they may exert some pressure unless oil rebounds quickly.
Another factor is the unusually warm September, which extended the summer travel season, increasing demand for gasoline. Rain and cooler weather are expected to temper this demand.
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Why are retail gasoline prices rising?
... a sharp spike in wholesale prices. Instead, prices have been gradually rising compared to 2023 levels, excluding the fall crisis period.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, the price increase results from five factors: reduced fuel production, recovery of the automotive market, seasonal demand growth, rising refinery costs, and increased exports following the lifting of restrictions in May.
Future Expectations
If gas station prices catch up with inflation by summer’s end, government countermeasures are likely. Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom ...
Why is the rise in fuel prices at gas stations accelerating despite the decrease in stock exchange prices?
... of wholesale fuel sales. By controlling price growth here, oil companies ensure the payment of subsidies from the budget through the price damping mechanism (for wholesale fuel supplies to the domestic market at low prices), but incur no significant costs because 85% of the fuel is sold outside the exchange. Overall, the strategy of oil companies is rational: controlling exchange prices while raising retail prices is two sides of the same coin, as both increase "margins," the expert argues.
The question remains: ...
Experts assessed the impact of the increase in fuel excise taxes on gas station prices.
....7%, which corresponds to the forecasted inflation rate. The excise tax rate for gasoline of ecological class 5 will be 15,755 rubles per ton, while for diesel fuel, it will be 10,915 rubles per ton. Experts note that excises account for about 20% of fuel costs, so the 4% increase will lead to a price rise of about 1% at gas stations. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the fuel and raw materials marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET, emphasizes that excise taxes are a significant source of income for regional budgets, and ...
How much do gas stations earn in Russia?
... and competition. For example, in the Moscow region, stations of the same network must be at least 20 kilometers apart in one direction, and a town with a population of 100,000–150,000 may have three to four stations.
Profitability Drivers
Retail fuel prices at gas stations include production costs, excise taxes, and operational expenses. Factors influencing profitability include crude oil price dynamics, government fiscal policies, wholesale petroleum prices, and operational costs. Taxes and fees can constitute 60–70% of fuel prices.
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