... regulations are also playing a role. Experts predict that prices may stabilize as seasonal factors subside The Moscow Fuel Association (MTA) reported that last week, retail gasoline prices at gas stations in the capital rose by 17-18 kopecks, while diesel prices increased by 27 kopecks. The end of autumn is objectively a period of transition from summer and interseasonal to winter diesel fuel, which contributes to price increases. Currently, according to the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange ...

... retail fuel prices did not exceed the general inflation rate. So far, this rule has only been followed in the diesel market: by November 18, the accumulated inflation since the start of the year was 7.4%, while retail gasoline prices grew by 9%, and diesel fuel prices increased by 5.4%. This difference is due to the fact that gasoline production has significantly less excess capacity than the diesel segment. According to the CDU TEK, the export share in gasoline supplies was 13% in 2023 (5.9 million tons ...

... gasoline produced in Russia is intended for the domestic market, with no more than 15% allocated for export. The situation with DF differs, as up to half of its production is exported. While gasoline prices showed no significant increase in the spring, diesel prices were expected to rise during the sowing season, making the ban a largely preventive step. Unsurprisingly, the ban was lifted at the end of May but reintroduced in August after both wholesale and retail gasoline prices spiked sharply in June ...

... maintain old ones, Gusev says. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the oil products and raw materials marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET, notes that excise taxes are an important source of income for regional budgets: 74.9% of the excise tax revenue on gasoline and diesel goes to Russian regions. In fact, the current indexing of prices is one of the ways to support regional budgets, which may face difficulties due to losses from corporate income tax. According to Rosstat data, the balance of profits and losses for wholesale and retail trade enterprises in the first four months ...

... according to Kotov. Kaufman suggests that wholesale prices could start rising again if the export restrictions on gasoline are lifted earlier than planned or if new accidents occur at refineries. Tereshkin believes that oil companies will keep gasoline and diesel prices in check until the end of the year, but a price surge may occur in early 2025 due to the lifting of the export embargo and the annual excise tax increase. Fuel prices at gas stations will continue to rise slowly, following inflation, according ...