... projected range for the rate by the end of 2025 is 3.5%–3.75%, responding to inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs. Global Growth and Inflation: A slowdown in global growth is anticipated, projecting a rate of 2.5% (down from 2.9% in 2024). Inflation will remain elevated in developing economies, although a reduction is expected in developed countries. State of Global Trade: U.S. tariffs and protectionist measures from other countries will lead to diversification of supply chains. Countries like India, with lower dependency on exports to the U.S., may benefit from the ...

... prices (exchange rates) depend on fundamental factors: macroeconomic indicators and events. The main factors of fundamental analysis in the currency sphere are the macroeconomic indicators of states. A Forex trader monitors changes in central bank rates, inflation, GDP growth rates, unemployment, the state of the trade balance, industrial output and other indicators of economic activity. For example, if the US economy demonstrates strong growth and the Fed raises the key interest rate, a fundamental analyst expects the dollar to strengthen – a rate increase makes investments in dollar assets more attractive, increasing demand for the currency. On the contrary, a soft monetary policy (lowering rates, turning on the printing press) usually weakens the national ...

... prematurely. The situation is more complex. There is a metric known as "inflation." Often, inflation rates are significantly higher than the deposit interest or approximately equal to it. This means that any potential profit is largely consumed by inflation fluctuations. For clarity, let's consider the entire process with numbers. For example, if one deposits 1 million rubles in a bank expecting to earn 180,000 rubles annually or 15,000 rubles monthly, this appears to be a decent sum on which to live. However, the invested million will depreciate each year. Recently, it might have been possible to buy a small apartment with that amount; ...

... facto used in the energy market. Something similar could be proposed for the fuel market. By the end of the year, the fuel market may return to the ‘inflation minus’ format; however, next year will be challenging for oil workers: the Central Bank expects to bring inflation down to 4%, so fuel networks will have to tighten their belts." Sergey Teryoshkin, General Director of the Open Oil Market trading platform. Source: Business FM Experts note that administrative pressure (such as an export ban or directives ...

... financial markets. Excess liquidity may lead to speculative asset price growth. What Should Investors Pay Attention To? The growth of money supply is a signal that investors should consider when shaping their strategies. Here are several key aspects: Inflation expectations. It is important to monitor how growth in money supply impacts the inflation rate. High inflation can reduce the real return on investments. Sectoral opportunities. Increased liquidity can stimulate growth in specific sectors such as construction,...