... Sergey Tereshkin for INFOTEK. In the article "Budget Surplus: What Drove the Growth in Oil and Gas Revenues," Sergey Tereshkin analyzes the factors that contributed to the increase in Russia's oil and gas revenues. He highlights that rising oil prices and the weakening of the ruble have led to a significant boost in federal budget inflows. Tereshkin also examines the impact of international sanctions and the adaptation of the Russian economy to new conditions, emphasizing the importance of diversification and the development of domestic resources to ensure sustainable economic growth. "Subsidies" to Russian Refineries Increased ...

... the price of AI-98 gasoline increased by 0.9% between August 20 and 26. "This is due to damage to refinery infrastructure and the resulting reduction in gasoline production. Losses incurred by oil producers from refinery downtime, partly due to sanctions on the supply of oil refining equipment, also play a role: in the first half of the year, the profit and loss balance of Russian refineries fell by 21.3% year-on-year to 1.44 trillion rubles," the expert explained. This pushes oil producers to raise wholesale ...

... invest in modernizing the refineries. In the first half of 2024, the investment surcharge accounted for 6% of subsidies to refineries, including the damping and reverse excise (105.8 billion rubles out of 1899 billion rubles). The problem is that sanctions on equipment supplies for ORFs have significantly complicated the modernization of Russian oil refining. Therefore, extending the investment surcharge means prolonging subsidies. At the same time, according to the expert, the measures mentioned are still under discussion and may be revised multiple times, including due to the significant ...

... However, forecasts are divided. Some analysts suggest that the ruble will continue to strengthen, reaching 93 rubles per dollar. Others warn of a possible depreciation of the Russian currency to 110 rubles by the end of the year. Key risk factors include sanction pressures, the state of the trade balance, the influence of American foreign economic policy, and dynamics in oil prices. What this means for investors: Short-term Prospects: The strengthening of the ruble may temporarily support domestic financial markets, reducing import costs and alleviating inflationary pressure. Risks: The long-term dynamics of the ruble ...

... has also lost the backing of Syria, which previously housed systems that warned Iran about air attacks, the analyst lists. The latest round of the Iran-Israel conflict has so far had a limited effect on oil prices, largely due to the fact that, due to sanctions, Iran's role in the oil market has diminished in recent years, adds Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the Open Oil Market. Due to U.S. embargoes, over 90% of Iran's oil exports now go to China, where the country's key buyers of Iranian oil are refineries that will bear the brunt ...