... risks. Thus, macroeconomic indicators instill cautious optimism: the global economy displays moderate growth alongside decreasing inflationary pressure. If positive trends persist, analysts' forecasts for future developments may improve in terms of GDP growth rates and price dynamics. Ruble Exchange Rate and Currency Market Dynamics Monday marks the conclusion of the July tax period in Russia, during which exporters typically sell foreign currency revenue to pay taxes, supporting the ruble's exchange ...

... conditions in the manufacturing sector. A rise in ISM above expectations could increase interest in U.S. assets. 18:00 MSK: USA - Factory Orders for October This figure signals prospects for industrial growth. An increase in orders would positively impact GDP expectations. 18:30 MSK: USA - EIA Oil Inventories Inventory data will influence global oil prices. A decrease in inventories typically supports price increases, benefiting Russian oil companies. 21:45 MSK: USA - Speech by Fed Chair Powell Markets ...

... maintained its base rate at 4.25–4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, signaling a prolonged pause. Despite inflation still being relatively high (around 3% according to the core PCE index), the Fed noted a slowdown in economic growth (the forecast for US GDP growth in 2025 has been revised downward to approximately 1.4%) and a moderate cooling in the labor market. Fresh data on unemployment claims (rising to 226,000 for the week) and weak new job creation dynamics have bolstered expectations that the ...

... oil amid slowing demand growth. According to OPEC's July estimates, global oil demand is expected to increase by only 1.3 million b/d in 2025, lower than the rates of 2024. Additionally, the IMF forecasts a slowdown in the global economy, including a GDP growth rate of about ~4% for China (the largest oil importer) in 2025. However, on the supply side, increases are not happening as rapidly as expected. OPEC+ countries are restoring production more slowly than the announced schedule: instead of the ...

... Uncertainty in Japan The Asia-Pacific markets exhibited mixed dynamics by the end of the week amid local risks and global trends. Focus is on the pace of economic growth in China, which has noticeably slowed down. According to official data, China's GDP growth in Q2 was around 5.2% year-on-year, slowing after a higher start to the year. Key reasons include cautious behavior from Chinese consumers and weak external demand. Domestic statistics indicate a decline in retail sales and investment activity,...