Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of August 18–22, 2025

Overview of Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of August 18–22, 2025: Global Inflation, PMI, Germany’s GDP, Fed Minutes, Jerome Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole, and Reports from Major Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

The second half of August promises a busy agenda for investors. This week, several blocks of crucial information will come into focus. Data on inflation from key economies – ranging from Europe and the UK to Russia and Japan – will be published, allowing for an assessment of global price trends and potential central bank actions. Simultaneously, leading indicators of business activity (preliminary PMIs) will be released worldwide, along with statistics on the housing market and consumer demand in the US. The end of the week will be marked by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, where investors will look for signals regarding future monetary policy in the US. Equally important is the geopolitical backdrop: a meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled, potentially affecting sentiments around the Ukrainian conflict. Meanwhile, the corporate reporting season continues, with major companies from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia presenting their results for the second quarter, reflecting the state of various sectors of the economy. Below is a detailed overview of events for each day of the week (Monday to Friday), listing the key macroeconomic indicators and reports from leading public companies.

Monday, August 18, 2025: Trump and Zelensky Meeting in Washington and Eurozone Trade Balance

The new week starts with a mixture of geopolitical and economic signals. The central focus is the visit of the Ukrainian leadership to the US: the meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in Washington is drawing attention from the markets as discussions on assistance to Ukraine and potential steps towards conflict resolution take place. Among the Monday's macroeconomic releases, the Eurozone's external trade statistics stand out, allowing investors to gauge the state of export and import flows in the region. Overall, the morning promises relative calm in data, enabling the markets to concentrate on political news.

• Meeting between Trump and Zelensky: Discussions will be held in Washington between former US President Donald Trump and President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. Investors will be looking for hints in their statements regarding the prospects for conflict resolution and continued support for Ukraine. Any signs of warming dialogue could boost market sentiments in Europe and lift defense sector stocks, while harsh rhetoric or a lack of progress could temporarily increase demand for safe-haven assets.
• 12:00 (Eurozone) - Trade Balance for June: Eurostat will release data on Eurozone exports and imports. A trade surplus indicates that exports exceed imports and reflects an influx of currency, which supports the euro, while a deficit may signal weakening external demand. Trade balance data also reflect the state of global trade and indirectly illustrate the impact of sanctions and tariffs on the European economy.

• Before the Market Opens: MTS and EN+ Group. In the morning, results from major players on the Russian market are expected. MTS, a leading telecom operator in Russia, will present its financial results for the first half of the year, showing revenue trends amid heightened competition and regulatory pressure. EN+ Group (metallurgy and energy, including control over Rusal) will release its IFRS report for the half-year: investors will assess how fluctuations in aluminum and electricity prices affected the company's profits and whether signs of recovery in metal demand are emerging in the global market, particularly from China.
• After the Market Closes: Palo Alto Networks and Blink Charging. Reports from US technology companies will be released in the evening. Palo Alto Networks, a global leader in cybersecurity, will present results for its fourth financial quarter. Strong revenue growth from cloud security services and AI-based solutions is expected; investors will also focus on the company's outlook, given the sustained high demand for cybersecurity. Additionally, Blink Charging, an EV charging infrastructure operator, will reveal its report; although it is a mid-sized company, its metrics on installing new charging stations and revenue dynamics will provide insight into the development of the electric vehicle sector and related services.

Monday is marked by politics: the results of the meeting in Washington may set the overall tone for the markets at the beginning of the week. The lack of abundant macro data will allow market participants to concentrate on geopolitical news. If the talks between Trump and Zelensky bring optimism about reducing tensions, a risk appetite increase could be expected – resulting in euro and equity strength in Europe. Conversely, investors may remain cautious. Isolated economic releases, such as the Eurozone trade balance, are unlikely to significantly shake the markets, but a positive surprise (e.g., an increase in exports) could bolster the euro and European exchanges. On the corporate front, attention centers on Palo Alto Networks: strong results could lift tech stocks, while any hint of slowing demand for cybersecurity solutions may dampen investor enthusiasm. Overall, the week's start suggests cautious sentiment, and investors should monitor political signals and early corporate reports to assess market sentiment.

Tuesday, August 19, 2025: Canadian Inflation (CPI) and US Housing Market

On Tuesday, North American indicators will be in the spotlight. Morning data on the Eurozone's current account will be published; however, the main macro event in the first half of the day will be Canadian inflation data. In the afternoon, an important block of US statistics will join the mix - data on housing construction, providing insights into the state of the US housing market under high interest rates. Late in the evening, API's traditional estimates of oil inventories will be released, setting the tone for the oil market ahead of official statistics. Collectively, these indicators will help understand how various segments of the economy are coping with tightening monetary policy.

• 11:00 (Eurozone) - Current Account Balance (June): Release of data on the Eurozone's current account balance. A positive balance indicates a capital inflow to the region, reflecting income (exports, investments) exceeding expenditures. This metric, like the trade balance, is crucial for the long-term euro dynamics: a sustained surplus supports the euro, while a deficit may signal increasing vulnerability of the Eurozone economy to external shocks.
• 15:30 (US) - Housing Starts (July): The Housing Starts statistic in the US will show the number of new residential homes that began construction during the month. This indicator reflects activity in the construction sector and indirectly the confidence of developers and consumers. A decrease could indicate a slowdown in the housing market amid high mortgage rates and expensive construction materials, while an increase in new builds could signal steady demand for real estate despite tightened financial conditions.
• 15:30 (Canada) - Consumer Price Index (July): One of the key macro indicators for the Canadian economy. CPI data will showcase the pace of consumer price growth. An inflation acceleration above expectations could heighten the anticipation of further rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, which typically strengthens the Canadian dollar. Conversely, weaker price growth or deflation may give the regulator room for a pause or policy easing, which markets would view positively for equities but negatively for the currency.
• 23:30 (US) - API Oil Inventories (Week): The American Petroleum Institute traditionally releases its estimate of commercial oil and petroleum product inventories for the week. This late release could impact oil prices in the Asian session on Wednesday. A significant reduction in inventories as per the API often supports rising oil prices (indicating high demand or limited supply), while an unexpected increase may trigger sales in the oil market ahead of the official EIA statistics.

• Before the Opening: Home Depot, BHP Group, XPeng. Tuesday morning will present results from several large corporations across different sectors and regions. American home goods retailer Home Depot will report second-quarter results. Investors expect to see how high interest rates and cooling in the housing market have affected sales in the DIY segment; previous quarters showed relative resilience from the company, and now it is crucial to see if that continues. Mining and metallurgical giant BHP Group will announce financial results for the year ending June. As one of the largest resource companies in the world (iron ore, copper, oil), BHP serves as a barometer for global commodity conditions – its profits and forecasts will indicate the state of demand coming from China and the industrial sector. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer XPeng will publish results shedding light on the competitive landscape in the EV market, particularly focusing on XPeng's vehicle delivery dynamics and management's comments regarding demand in China and expansion to other markets.
• After the Close: Significant corporate earnings releases are not scheduled for Tuesday evening. After the main session, investors will focus on assessing the day's macro data and preparing for an extensive inflow of midweek events.

Tuesday will provide several indicators that could impact local assets. The main event in the first half of the day will be the Canadian inflation report: for market participants, it is an opportunity to compare price trends in North America with the situation in the US. A sharp deviation of the Canadian CPI from expectations could reflect not only on the CAD exchange rate but also set the tone for trading across currency markets, especially against the USD. The housing starts data in the US will continue to address the influence of Fed rates on the economy: weak Housing Starts numbers will intensify discussions about an approaching recession and may trigger a decline in bond yields (and thus support the stock indices), while unexpectedly high new build growth, in contrast, will confirm economic resilience and caution, as the Fed may keep tight policy for a longer period. On the corporate front, Home Depot’s results will serve as an indicator of consumer spending on housing: if the retailer maintains revenue at a high level, it will reassure the market regarding the strength of the American consumer. BHP's report will draw interest from commodity investors: improving financials amid rising metal prices signal recovery in demand (primarily from Asia), while weak results may amplify concerns about a slowdown in China. Overall, on Tuesday, these macro and microeconomic signals will be key drivers, and investors should be ready to react swiftly to the data releases, particularly with significant events scheduled for Wednesday.

Wednesday, August 20, 2025: Inflation in the Eurozone and Russia, Fed Minutes (FOMC)

Wednesday's information backdrop is set to intensify significantly and gain a global character. Data on consumer inflation will be published across multiple regions throughout the day: investors will receive final CPI figures for the Eurozone, along with fresh statistics on prices in the UK and Russia. These releases will help assess how effective different central banks have been in curbing price growth. The Asian morning will begin with China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decision and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's meeting outcomes, setting the direction for currency markets. In the afternoon, key events will include the minutes from the July FOMC meeting – a document that may shed light on the sentiments within the Federal Reserve and future plans regarding interest rates. Additionally, the EIA's oil inventories report will be released as usual on Wednesdays, while Brazil will discuss the initiative to include Bitcoin in its national reserves, attracting the attention of cryptocurrency market participants.

• 04:15 (China) - LPR Decision: The People's Bank of China will announce its Loan Prime Rate. Amid the slowing Chinese economy, markets expect either the rate to be maintained or a slight decrease to support lending. Any rate change will immediately impact the yuan and sentiments on Asian markets: a reduction in LPR may temporarily support stocks in Shanghai and Hong Kong but will increase downward pressure on the yuan, while maintaining the rate amid signs of weak growth may disappoint investors expecting stimulus measures.
• 05:00 (New Zealand) - RBNZ Rate Decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will decide on its official cash rate. Following a series of hikes, the rate in New Zealand has reached a level that restrains the economy, and the regulator may take a pause. Maintaining the rate at current levels (or even signaling potential future cuts) will weaken the New Zealand dollar but support the stock market. Conversely, if the RBNZ unexpectedly continues its tightening, this will strengthen the NZD but may negatively impact stocks due to concerns about a slowing economy.
• 09:00 (UK) - Consumer Price Index (July): One of the most important monthly stats for the UK market. The CPI level in the UK influences Bank of England policy and the pound's value. A sustained high inflation rate (especially double-digit) will increase pressure on the regulator to continue raising interest rates – such a prospect usually supports the pound but can weigh on the FTSE index due to higher borrowing costs for businesses. Conversely, if inflation noticeably slows, it will signal an approaching peak in rates, favoring equities and bonds but potentially weakening the GBP.
• 12:00 (Eurozone) - Consumer Price Index (July, Final Data): Eurostat will publish the final data on inflation in the monetary union for July. Preliminary CPI estimates may have been revised; investors will look to see if the trend of slowing price growth is confirmed. Inflation exceeding expectations will reinforce the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank, driving markets to price in the likelihood of further ECB rate hikes, which could strengthen the euro but cool European equity indices. Conversely, if price growth is below forecasts, this would provide relief for the ECB: a pause in tightening policy would become more likely, supporting equities in the Eurozone and weakening the euro.
• 17:30 (US) - Official EIA Oil Inventories (Week): The US Department of Energy will publish data on the weekly change in oil, gasoline, and distillates inventories. This is an important benchmark for the oil market midweek. A significant drop in oil inventories compared to the previous week typically signals high demand or supply issues, leading to rising oil prices. Conversely, an unexpected increase in inventories may lead to price declines, indicating market saturation. Commodity traders will compare these figures with API data and IEA forecasts (released on Tuesday) to form a complete picture of supply and demand balance.
• 19:00 (Russia) - Consumer Price Index (July): Rosstat will introduce fresh data on Russian inflation. Price dynamics in the Russian Federation during the summer months are particularly important against the backdrop of the recent weakening of the ruble. Acceleration in year-on-year inflation above the Central Bank of Russia's target (for instance, exceeding 5–6%) will increase expectations that the Bank of Russia will continue raising the key rate at upcoming meetings – this may temporarily support the ruble but create pressure on the stock and bond markets due to the rising cost of borrowed funds. Conversely, if inflation slows or is below forecasts, this will be a positive surprise: the regulator will likely refrain from further tightening, which would be favorable for the OFZ and corporate sector.
• 21:00 (US) - FOMC Meeting Minutes (July): The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting. This document will detail the discussions among FOMC members regarding the state of the economy, inflation, and interest rates. Investors will look for hints on the Fed's future actions: how unanimous the votes were for the last rate hike, whether the possibility of a pause or even a cut was discussed in the future. If the minutes indicate that the Fed remains concerned about inflation and is leaning towards further tightening, markets could react by falling stock prices and rising Treasury yields. More dovish signals, such as stress on economic risks or discussions on the appropriateness of holding rates at current levels, would trigger relief: the dollar would weaken, stocks would rise, and end-of-year rate expectations would be adjusted downward.

• Before the Opening: Target, Lowe’s, TJX Companies, Estee Lauder, Analog Devices. Wednesday morning will reveal several significant reports, providing a snapshot of the state of the consumer sector and technology. American discounter Target will present second-quarter results: after warnings about declining consumer demand, the markets expect confirmation of how household spending cuts have affected sales, especially in the non-food segment. Simultaneously, DIY retailer Lowe’s will report on home goods sales – investors will compare its metrics with those from Home Depot from Tuesday to ascertain how the overall renovation and construction market has fared. TJX Companies, the world's largest off-price retailer (brands TJ Maxx, Marshalls, etc.), will publish results, allowing insights into whether shoppers continue to seek discounts in the low-price segment; revenue growth at TJX may signal changing consumer preferences towards saving. The luxury cosmetics manufacturer Estee Lauder will report on global sales – from China to the US: investors will assess how demand for fragrance and cosmetic products has recovered since the pandemic and what prospects the company anticipates in key markets, particularly in Asia. Furthermore, semiconductor company Analog Devices will report for the quarter, reflecting the situation in the chip industry. Its demand data for electronics in the industrial and automotive sectors will provide crucial signals: whether the decline in orders continues or if an upturn is beginning due to improved supply chains and rising interest in new technologies.
• After the Close: Significant corporate earnings releases are not anticipated on Wednesday evening. Following such a busy day, market participants will shift their attention to analyze inflation report outcomes and Fed signals, preparing for an equally intense Thursday.

Wednesday promises to be one of the key days of the week due to a combination of critically important macro data and mixed news. In the morning, inflation will take center stage: three regions (the UK, Eurozone, and Russia) will publish inflation growth metrics. This represents a sort of "inflation triathlon" that will reveal where the fight against inflation is progressing more successfully. The Eurozone data will be particularly significant – any deviations from forecasts will directly influence the ECB's policy and, as a consequence, the EUR and yields of European bonds. In the afternoon, the focus will shift across the ocean: the evening release of the Fed minutes will essentially set the tone for the closing part of the week. If the document reaffirms a hawkish tone (readiness to raise rates until inflation is suppressed), we may witness a strengthening of the dollar and a correction in equity markets. However, there are chances for more moderate phrasing – such as discussing risks for the US economy. In that case, investors will perceive it as a signal for a Fed pause, capable of spurring a rally in stock prices and weakening the dollar. The corporate aspect of Wednesday, though full of reports, may take a back seat to the macroeconomic wave. Nonetheless, reports from Target and Lowe’s will allow for a final assessment of the American consumer's state: if both retailers indicate a drop in sales, discussions about an impending downturn will intensify. Meanwhile, strong results from TJX or Estee Lauder may instill optimism in specific market niches while Analog Devices' outcomes will indicate whether the semiconductor cycle has hit bottom. On Wednesday, investors should proceed with heightened caution: significant volatility is likely both from the CPI data and the Fed minutes release. The optimal strategy is to promptly monitor the news and adjust positions as needed, keeping a general focus on long-term inflation trends and economic growth.

Thursday, August 21, 2025: Global PMIs and US Statistical Block

On Thursday, investors will shift their attention to leading indicators of economic activity and important data from the US. In the morning, preliminary estimates of business activity indices (PMIs) will be released in several countries and regions – from Asia to Europe. These publications will allow an assessment of how the manufacturing and service sectors are faring in August: whether the slowdown that started earlier continues or signs of stabilization are emerging. By midday, the PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK will complement the global picture. In the afternoon, a series of releases about the US economy will occur: weekly unemployment claims, the regional manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed, updated housing sales figures, and the leading indicators index. Additionally, European consumer sentiments and statistics on US gas inventories will be evaluated. Such a rich data set will make Thursday one of the decisive days for understanding where the global economy is heading in the third quarter.

• 02:00 (Australia) - Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI (August, Preliminary): Early business activity indicators from Judo Bank/Stanford for Australia will set the tone for the Asian session. If the indices show a recovery (values above 50), the Australian dollar may strengthen, and the local stock market could gain support based on expectations of improving corporate profits. Conversely, weak readings (especially if the decline in manufacturing PMI continues) will signal economic stagnation and amplify discussions on the need for stimulus measures from the RBA.
• 03:30 (Japan) - Manufacturing/Services PMI (August, Preliminary): Preliminary PMI indices for Japan from au Jibun Bank will highlight trends in the world's third-largest economy. The Japanese manufacturing sector has been under pressure from external demand in recent months, while the services sector grew due to domestic consumption. Continued this dynamic – a decrease in Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI around or above 50 – will confirm that internal demand remains the main growth driver. Investors will assess if the slowdown in industry poses risks for the economy: weak figures may heighten speculation about additional stimulus from the government or a continuation of the ultra-loose policy from the Bank of Japan, putting downward pressure on the yen.
• 08:00 (India) - Manufacturing/Services PMI (August, Preliminary): Despite the more modest scale of the Indian market, data on business activity in India is important for the overall picture of the Asian region. The Indian economy has been demonstrating consistent growth in recent months. If the PMIs remain high (well above 50), it will further cement India's status as a new "growth point" for global investments. A moderate slowdown in the figures will signal that the RBI's tightening and external factors (such as expensive oil) are beginning to have an effect.
• 10:30 (Germany) - Manufacturing/Services PMI (August, Preliminary): PMI indices from S&P Global for the leading economy in Europe will reveal whether Germany continues to experience recession. In previous months, Germany's manufacturing PMI has been in deep decline (<45), reflecting a drop in export orders, while the services sector remained closer to neutral levels. If August data shows further declines in the manufacturing index and simultaneous service sector downturns below 50, concerns about a recession in Germany will intensify. Any improvement, especially a rise in Manufacturing PMI, would be a pleasant surprise: the euro and European stocks may gain momentum on expectations that the bottom of the downturn has been surpassed.
• 11:00 (Eurozone) - Composite PMI as well as Manufacturing and Services (August, Preliminary): The combined data from the Eurozone will consolidate the picture from major countries in the bloc. The overall business activity index is expected to remain under pressure due to industrial weakness. Investors will carefully compare trends: is the services sector still experiencing a slowdown (as noted in July), and is the manufacturing PMI continuing to fall deeper? Weak figures for the region as a whole will reinforce arguments in favor of the ECB's cautious approach – possibly nearing the end of the rate hike cycle – which could have mixed effects: supporting stock markets while simultaneously weakening the euro. However, an unexpected rise in PMI could signal a return to growth, alleviating some recession fears and likely strengthening the European currency.
• 11:30 (UK) - Manufacturing/Services PMI (August, Preliminary): The UK business activity indices will provide insights into how the UK economy is coping with high inflation and interest rates. In the previous month, the PMI services index in Britain dropped just below 50, signaling a deceleration of growth, while the manufacturing PMI remained at low levels. Continuing this trend (especially a deeper service sector decline) will heighten recession risks and may weaken the pound, as the market begins to anticipate a policy shift by the Bank of England. However, if services unexpectedly recover above 50 points, it will indicate the resilience of British business and support for internal demand, consequently strengthening the GBP.
• 15:30 (US) - Initial Jobless Claims: The weekly report on jobless claims in the US is a timely indicator of labor market conditions. The indicator steadily remains at low levels, reflecting sustained pressure on the labor market. If the number of claims unexpectedly rises more than anticipated, it may hint at early indications of an economic slowdown and be viewed positively by the stock market (as a factor restraining the Fed from further rate hikes). Conversely, a continuation of low or falling claims will confirm the labor market's strength and may bolster the Fed's confidence in the rationale for maintaining a tight policy.
• 15:30 (US) - Philadelphia Business Activity Index (August): The regional survey of manufacturing companies by the Philadelphia Fed allows for assessing industry trends in the current month. This index is volatile, but when combined with earlier week Empire State indices, it shapes a picture of the third quarter's beginning. An improvement in the Philadelphia index (a move into positive territory) will indicate possible activity rebounds in manufacturing, supporting an optimistic view of the economy. A decline deeper into negative territory will confirm that the US industrial sector is still experiencing a decline due to high rates and global factors.
• 16:45 (US) - Preliminary PMI Manufacturing/Services/Composite (August): The national PMI indices from S&P Global for the US will provide a timely assessment of the state of the world’s largest economy. In previous months, the US services sector has maintained growth, while the manufacturing sector has contracted. Markets will be attentive to whether a slowdown has begun in the services sector due to curbed consumer spending. If the Services PMI falls noticeably closer to 50, this will serve as a worrying signal about the loss of US economic growth momentum. Concurrently, investors await signs of a bottom in Manufacturing PMI: any rise in this index will be interpreted as the outset of recovery in the sector. These indicators can greatly influence Fed rate expectations: weak PMIs will strengthen the case for a pause or easing, while strong figures will support the hawkish camp.
• 17:00 (US) - Existing Home Sales (July): The report on existing home sales reflects activity in the US secondary real estate market. Amid high mortgage rates, home sales volumes have declined in recent months, while prices have stabilized. Data for July will show whether this trend has continued. Further sales decline will indicate that expensive credit is holding back buyers – this signals an economic slowdown, likely pushing down bond yields. However, if sales unexpectedly increase, it will be perceived as a sign of robust consumer demand, though it will raise questions regarding housing affordability and the debt burden on households.
• 17:00 (US) - Leading Economic Indicators Index (July): The composite Leading Economic Index (LEI), calculated by the Conference Board, combines various economic variables (jobless claims, new orders, consumer sentiment, etc.) and often signals an impending downturn or upturn. The index has been declining for several months, warning of a possible recession. Another decrease in July will reinforce these concerns, while a rise or zero change may provide hope for a "soft landing" in the economy. The markets see the LEI as confirmation or negation of their base scenarios: a sharp drop in the metric could temporarily amplify volatility, particularly in equities.
• 17:00 (Eurozone) - Consumer Confidence Index (August, Preliminary): A quick assessment of consumer confidence in the Eurozone by the European Commission is important for understanding household sentiments. The indicator has remained in negative territory (pessimism) for an extended period, reflecting high living costs and economic concerns. If the August figure remains approximately at the same level or worsens, it will confirm that consumers continue to limit spending – potentially reducing retail sales prospects. Conversely, an improvement in the index (even while remaining negative) will indicate gradual adaptation and may instill cautious optimism regarding future demand.
• 17:30 (US) - EIA Natural Gas Stocks (Week): Weekly statistics on changes in gas inventories in US storage facilities impact natural gas price dynamics, especially in the preparation season for the heating period. Substantial increases in inventories compared to the norm can exert downward pressure on prices, signaling sufficient supply, while modest refilling or removal of gas from storage (atypical for the summer) may trigger price increases due to winter shortage concerns. Energy firms and the industry closely monitor this report for purchase and sales planning.

• Before the Opening: Walmart. On Thursday morning, the world's largest retail chain, Walmart, will present its quarterly results. This report is the culmination of the US retailer season, effectively serving as a "health check" for the entire consumer sector. Investors anticipate insights into how high inflation and shifting consumption patterns have impacted sales at Walmart in the US and international divisions. Particular attention will be paid to the dynamics of food sales (traditionally resilient even during crises) as well as the e-commerce segment. Strong results from Walmart (increased revenue, confident outlook) will strengthen faith in the American consumer's purchasing power and support the stock market. Conversely, if the retailer reports declining traffic or a cautious second-half forecast, it may provoke a wave of concern regarding weakening consumer demand.
• After the Close: Zoom Video, Intuit, Workday, Ross Stores. Following the end of trading, a series of reports from major companies in the technology and consumer sectors will be released. Video conferencing provider Zoom will disclose data that reveals whether demand for its services has persisted in the post-pandemic era: a stable customer base and growth in corporate subscriptions will signal the company's successful adaptation to the new reality, while stagnation or user attrition would alarm investors. Fintech giant Intuit (developer of accounting and tax software, including TurboTax and QuickBooks) will disclose its financial results, allowing for an assessment of the state of small businesses and demand for financial services: an increase in subscribers and payment volumes will indicate sustained entrepreneurial activity. Company Workday, a provider of cloud solutions for human resource and finance management, will yield perspectives on corporate IT spending: maintaining high subscription revenue growth signals that, despite economic challenges, business digital transformation continues. Additionally, discount retailer Ross Stores will publish quarterly results – the market will compare these with TJX and Walmart's releases. Growth in sales at Ross's stores will confirm the trend of consumers shifting to discounters for good deals, while improving margins will signal effective cost management. Collectively, these reports will provide a broad picture: from consumer and business sentiments to the state of the technology market.

Thursday will test the resilience of global markets. Throughout the day, investors will receive a massive volume of information, and the key task will be to appropriately prioritize signals. The morning's PMIs worldwide will offer an evaluation of synchronicity or disparities among economies: noticeable deteriorations in European or Asian indicators will heighten worries about a global downturn, while unexpected growth areas (for instance, in China or India) could balance negativity. Likely, weak data from Germany and the Eurozone will draw particular attention considering the significance of the European market – their influence will ripple across the euro and associated assets. The focus will then shift to the United States, where the weekly jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Index will quickly provide the market's "temperature”: continued trends indicating a strong labor market and sluggish industry will confirm the existing situation, but surprises (in the form of rising unemployment or, conversely, invigorated factory activity) could shake the markets. However, the most crucial datasets will be the US PMIs and the block at 17:00 – they will be released almost simultaneously, likely spurring a spike in volatility. If data shows a slowdown in both services and manufacturing, investors may begin to price in a Fed rate cut sooner than anticipated, immediately reflected in rising stocks and a falling dollar. Conversely, resilient figures (especially in the services sector) will urge markets to remain cautious: the Fed may have to maintain a stricter stance for a longer time, restraining equity indices. Don't overlook the corporate landscape: Walmart's morning report will set the tone for the consumer sector – strong results from this retailer can even mitigate poor macro data, instilling confidence in the consumer's strength. In the evening, technology companies such as Zoom, Intuit, and Workday will report after market close, but their outcomes will influence Nasdaq sentiments the following day. Thus, Thursday will demand maximum caution from investors and readiness to swiftly interpret mixed signals. The interplay of macro statistics and corporate news will enable a conclusion by day's end regarding whether the global economy is moving towards a slowdown or retaining resilience amid high inflation and rates.

Friday, August 22, 2025: Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole and Germany's GDP

The final day of the week brings two events that could significantly affect market sentiment. In the morning, an important indicator for Europe will be released – the preliminary estimate of Germany's GDP for the second quarter of 2025. As the locomotive of the European economy, Germany has faced struggles in the first half of the year, and fresh data will confirm or refute recession assumptions. Additionally, inflation figures in Japan will become available before the market opens, shedding light on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy plans. However, the main highlight of the day will be the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Markets worldwide eagerly await this address, hoping for insights into the state of the US economy and possible hints regarding interest rate changes. In the absence of many corporate reports, it will be the macroeconomic outcomes of the week and Powell's words that shape investor sentiment ahead of the weekend.

• 02:30 (Japan) - Consumer Price Index (July): Japanese inflation is under close scrutiny as the Bank of Japan gradually moves away from ultra-loose policies. July data will illustrate whether underlying inflation remains consistently above the target level of 2%. An acceleration in CPI (especially excluding fresh product prices) may heighten expectations that the BOJ will continue adjusting its yield control policy and potentially allow interest rates to rise – this could strengthen the yen, while Japanese stocks may fluctuate (the banking sector could rise on margin growth expectations while exporters may falter due to currency strength). Conversely, if inflation falls or remains moderate, the regulator will likely maintain a cautious approach, which will weaken the yen and support the Japanese stock market.
• 09:00 (Germany) - GDP for Q2 2025 (Preliminary): The preliminary estimate of Germany's GDP growth in the second quarter is the culmination of the week for European investors. After a decline at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, the German economy is attempting to avoid a technical recession. If the data shows zero growth or a slight increase in GDP compared to the first quarter, this will be a relief: Germany demonstrates signs of stabilization due to resilient internal demand or export services. Negative dynamics (GDP contraction) for the third quarter in a row will confirm recession – such a signal will weaken the euro and could lead to sell-offs in European stocks, especially if the downturn is deeper than expected. A positive surprise (substantial GDP growth) is unlikely, but if it occurs, the market will respond with a surge of optimism regarding the entire Eurozone, anticipating that the worst is behind.
• 17:00 (US) - Jerome Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole Symposium: The week's climax for global markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at the annual conference for central bankers, and his statements will be thoroughly analyzed by economists and traders. It is often at Jackson Hole where strategic shifts in policy are voiced. Powell may summarize the progress in combating inflation and evaluate risks for the US economy. If the tone of the speech is hawkish – for example, emphasizing readiness to further raise rates or keep them high for an extended period – this could trigger a wave of selling in equity markets and strengthen the dollar, as investors reevaluate expectations for easing policy. Conversely, more balanced or dovish comments (recognition of slowing inflation, mention of possible flexibility in approach) will signal that the tightening cycle is near completion. In such cases, a rise in stock indices, a decline in bond yields, and a weakening of the dollar can be expected. Notably, Powell is unlikely to announce concrete decisions, but even rhetorical nuances can significantly alter market forecasts. Investors worldwide may momentarily pause in anticipation – and immediate shifts in major assets are possible right after his speech.

• Before the Opening: On the last day of the week, there are practically no major public companies releasing quarterly reports. Only a few mid-sized issuers (for example, American retailer BJ's Wholesale Club and others) are publishing results, whose impact on global markets is limited. The spotlight remains on macroeconomic events and the Fed chairman's speech.
• After the Close: Significant corporate earnings releases are not scheduled. Market participants will take a breath after a tense week and start preparing for the new five-day period.

Friday concludes a week rich in events while potentially setting the tone for the upcoming weeks. In the morning, Asia and Europe will provide final touches to macro statistics: if Japanese inflation comes in above expectations, it will add intrigue to the Bank of Japan's policy and may cause fluctuations in the yen’s exchange rate. However, the central event of the first half of the day is Germany's GDP. Any signs of recovery in the German economy will be met with relief: European markets may end the week on a positive note, hoping that the worst period of contraction is over. Conversely, if the report confirms a recession, investors will consider additional support measures for the economy from the German government or the ECB – and the market reaction may be cautiously negative (moderate declines in DAX, weakness of the euro). By midday, all eyes will turn to the quiet town of Jackson Hole, where Jerome Powell will take the microphone. Historically, Fed chair speeches at this forum have prompted noticeable shifts in quotes, and 2025 should be no exception. Likely, Powell will aim to maintain a balanced tone, emphasizing progress in reducing inflation while warning of readiness to act if necessary. This balance, if conveyed, could slightly calm the markets: stocks will settle with weekly gains, and the dollar will remain in its usual range. At the same time, one cannot rule out either a more hawkish rhetoric (which would be an unpleasant surprise for bull market participants) or, conversely, signals of an imminent policy reversal (which would spur a rally in risk assets). Therefore, it is essential for investors on Friday to be prepared for heightened volatility, especially during and immediately following Powell's speech. As the week concludes, the markets will be digesting a vast amount of information – from inflation trends and the economic conditions of major countries to corporate successes and failures. The end of the day will allow for a comparison of all these puzzle pieces and an adjustment of strategies: some may realize profits after a tumultuous week while others may see new opportunities for entering the market. In any case, Friday will serve as a concluding note, enabling investors to understand whether their expectations for the week have been met and how the overall backdrop has shifted ahead of autumn.

What to Watch for as an Investor

The week of August 18 to 22, 2025, is rich in diverse events – from macroeconomic releases to high-profile political meetings and corporate earnings. It is crucial for investors to highlight the key factors that could exert the most substantial impact on the market.

• Inflation Data and Central Bank Policies: Reports on CPI from several countries (Canada, the UK, the Eurozone, Russia, Japan) take precedence. These figures will showcase how successfully authorities are curbing price growth. Special attention should be paid to European and Russian inflation, as they directly influence the ECB and the CBR's decisions. Simultaneously, the Fed's minutes and Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole will act as indicators for the American central bank's course. Investors should monitor the rhetoric: any hints at changes in monetary policy (accelerating or halting rate hikes) could set direction for all asset classes.
• Indicators of Economic Growth and Business Activity: Preliminary PMIs worldwide, as well as Germany's GDP, are key to understanding whether the global economy is slowing. If business activity indices confirm contraction in Europe's industry and service weakening, markets will need to price in a more pessimistic scenario for the year-end. In contrast, signs of recovery (especially in China, the US, or India) may improve sentiment somewhat. Investors should compare these leading indicators with "hard" data: statistics on the US housing market, consumer confidence, and Germany's GDP. Together they will paint a clearer picture – is the global economy truly losing momentum, or is it merely undergoing a brief correction?
• Corporate Earnings and the State of Specific Sectors: Although the quarterly earnings season is concluding, several major companies from various sectors will report results this week. Focus is on the consumer sector (Walmart, Target, Home Depot, TJX, Ross), technology and fintech (Palo Alto Networks, Zoom, Intuit, Workday), industry and raw materials (BHP). Investors must evaluate whether corporate profits meet expectations. Especially telling signals may come from retailers: their reports reflect consumer behavior amidst inflation. If most companies exceed forecasts and provide rosy outlooks, this will bolster the stock market and confirm that business adapts to the challenging environment. However, disappointments (for instance, drops in sales among key players or weak forecasts for future quarters) could trigger capital reallocation – leading money to flow from vulnerable sectors (like cyclical retail or technology) into safer assets.
• Geopolitical Factors: The meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky introduces an element of political uncertainty to the markets. Any outcomes from these negotiations, be it statements on conflict resolution prospects or commitments for additional support, could significantly impact the European markets, energy prices, and currencies in developing countries. For investors in the CIS, it’s essential to consider this factor: geopolitical news can change power dynamics overnight, increasing volatility. Therefore, alongside economic data, it's crucial to track the news flow – leaders' comments, potential agreements, or, conversely, intensified rhetoric.

Conclusion: This week blends powerful triggers from both the economy and politics. Investors are advised to maintain vigilance and flexibility. During this five-day trading cycle, it’s important to carefully analyze incoming data in context: individual figures may present contradictory signals, but the aggregated picture will clarify trends. If inflation trends suggest a slowdown while PMI and GDP data do not indicate a sharp decline, markets could have a chance to continue rising on hopes of a soft landing for the economy. However, any signs of overheating prices or a deepening recession should signal a more cautious strategy. Prepare for the fact that the Fed chairman's speech or unforeseen geopolitical statements may shift sentiments instantly – hence, risk management and timely reactions to news are especially important right now. By balancing macroeconomic trends and corporate narratives, investors can navigate with greater efficacy amidst uncertainty, making prudent decisions to protect their portfolios while capitalizing on emerging opportunities.