Comment for RBC: Starting from August 1, 2024, Russia will reintroduce the ban on gasoline exports, which will last at least until September. This decision was made amid rising wholesale fuel prices: from May 20 to July 30, the price of AI-92 increased by 13%, and AI-95 by 29%. The price hike is driven by high demand and scheduled maintenance at oil refineries.
Experts note that this model of regulation, which includes temporary export bans, could become a permanent practice for stabilizing the domestic fuel market. However, it carries risks for the oil industry and requires the development of more sophisticated mechanisms, such as a futures market and a risk-hedging culture.
For a more detailed analysis of the situation and its impact on the fuel market, you can read the full article via the link above.
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Column by Sergey Tereshkin for the "Oil and Gas Industry" Portal
According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the second quarter of 2024, global oil supply exceeded demand by 590,000 barrels per day. By the end of the year, this surplus is expected to narrow to 300,000 barrels per day.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET platform for oil products and raw materials, explains this trend with the following factors:
Easing of OPEC+ quotas: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other alliance members plan to increase oil production by December 2024, adding an extra 540,000 barrels per day to the market.
Rising production in Iran: Despite sanctions, Iran is ramping up oil production, reaching 3.25 million barrels per day in the first half of 2024, nearing its 2017 levels.
Growth in U.S. production: Output is projected to rise from 13.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 13.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by high prices that sustain profitability for shale projects.
Tereshkin notes that despite the increased supply, oil prices are expected to remain stable at around $80 per barrel until the end of 2024, with a potential price decline anticipated in early 2025.
According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the second quarter of 2024, global oil supply exceeded demand by 590,000 barrels per day. By the end of the year, this surplus is expected to narrow to 300,000 barrels per day.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET platform for oil products and raw materials, explains this trend with the following factors:
Easing of OPEC+ quotas: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other alliance members plan to increase oil production by December 2024, adding an extra 540,000 barrels per day to the market.
Rising production in Iran: Despite sanctions, Iran is ramping up oil production, reaching 3.25 million barrels per day in the first half of 2024, nearing its 2017 levels.
Growth in U.S. production: Output is projected to rise from 13.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 13.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by high prices that sustain profitability for shale projects.
Tereshkin notes that despite the increased supply, oil prices are expected to remain stable at around $80 per barrel until the end of 2024, with a potential price decline anticipated in early 2025.
Commentary for "Vedomosti":
The article "Strong Energy Ties" on Sergey Tereshkin's website is dedicated to the development of energy cooperation between Russia and China. The piece examines forecasts for energy consumption growth in China, the increase in Russian exports of oil, gas, and coal to the country, as well as the participation of Russian companies in the construction of nuclear power plants in China. Special attention is given to joint projects such as Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG-2, involving Chinese investors and banks. The article highlights the strengthening of energy ties between the two countries and the prospects for their further development.
The article "Strong Energy Ties" on Sergey Tereshkin's website is dedicated to the development of energy cooperation between Russia and China. The piece examines forecasts for energy consumption growth in China, the increase in Russian exports of oil, gas, and coal to the country, as well as the participation of Russian companies in the construction of nuclear power plants in China. Special attention is given to joint projects such as Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG-2, involving Chinese investors and banks. The article highlights the strengthening of energy ties between the two countries and the prospects for their further development.
Commentary for "Rossiskaya Gazeta": Experts predict an acceleration in the price growth of diesel fuel by the end of summer, but this increase will not exceed the inflation rate. The article examines the key reasons behind price fluctuations, seasonal factors, and measures that could impact the diesel fuel market. Find out what the market is expecting and how these changes could affect consumers and businesses.
Comment for "Rossiskaya Gazeta":
Why is the price of AI-95 gasoline rising faster than others? What are the reasons for the sharp fluctuations in fuel prices, and why is AI-95 leading the way in price hikes? The article examines the key factors influencing the gasoline market, explains the economic reasons behind the price increase, and what this means for consumers. Read the detailed analysis and expert forecasts on my website.
Why is the price of AI-95 gasoline rising faster than others? What are the reasons for the sharp fluctuations in fuel prices, and why is AI-95 leading the way in price hikes? The article examines the key factors influencing the gasoline market, explains the economic reasons behind the price increase, and what this means for consumers. Read the detailed analysis and expert forecasts on my website.
Gasoline prices are rising again in Russia. Fuel producers are compensating for their costs at the expense of consumers, while regulators are discussing various measures to stabilize the situation, including extending the export ban. However, according to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the problem can only be solved by significantly increasing the standards for selling gasoline through the exchange.
Adjustments to the rules for compensatory payments under the damping mechanism, currently being discussed by the government, are intended to support oil companies but may lead to a slight increase in exchange prices. This opinion was expressed in an interview with RG by Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the OPEN OIL MARKET marketplace for petroleum products and raw materials.
Starting from January 1, 2025, Russia plans to increase excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel by 4.7%, which corresponds to the forecasted inflation rate. The excise tax rate for gasoline of ecological class 5 will be 15,755 rubles per ton, while for diesel fuel, it will be 10,915 rubles per ton. Experts note that excises account for about 20% of fuel costs, so the 4% increase will lead to a price rise of about 1% at gas stations. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the fuel and raw materials marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET, emphasizes that excise taxes are a significant source of income for regional budgets, and their indexation is aimed at supporting regions that may face financial difficulties.
Expert Tereshkin: Iran's return to the oil market will offset price hikes (Prime).
Iran's return to the oil market could significantly impact global oil prices. How exactly this will affect the supply-demand balance, what investors should prepare for, and what risks the new player on the market brings — read in my review.
Iran's return to the oil market could significantly impact global oil prices. How exactly this will affect the supply-demand balance, what investors should prepare for, and what risks the new player on the market brings — read in my review.
Column by Sergey Tereshkin for the publication Oil and Capital.
Recently, an article was published on sergeytereshkin.ru discussing the rapid growth of revenues from MET (Mineral Extraction Tax) in Russia during the first half of 2024, which increased 2.5 times. The article examines the reasons behind this growth, its impact on the national economy, and potential prospects for businesses and investors. Discover how this shift in tax policy could affect the fuel sector and what opportunities it presents for entrepreneurs. Read the detailed analysis in my article.
Recently, an article was published on sergeytereshkin.ru discussing the rapid growth of revenues from MET (Mineral Extraction Tax) in Russia during the first half of 2024, which increased 2.5 times. The article examines the reasons behind this growth, its impact on the national economy, and potential prospects for businesses and investors. Discover how this shift in tax policy could affect the fuel sector and what opportunities it presents for entrepreneurs. Read the detailed analysis in my article.
A commentary for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta."
"Why Are Retail Gasoline Prices Rising?"
In this piece, I analyze the reasons behind the increase in gasoline prices at gas stations. The article explains how factors such as supply and demand, taxes, global oil prices, and government regulation influence price dynamics. Learn about the current trends in the fuel market and why prices continue to climb—read my in-depth analysis on the website.
"Why Are Retail Gasoline Prices Rising?"
In this piece, I analyze the reasons behind the increase in gasoline prices at gas stations. The article explains how factors such as supply and demand, taxes, global oil prices, and government regulation influence price dynamics. Learn about the current trends in the fuel market and why prices continue to climb—read my in-depth analysis on the website.
Sergey Tereshkin's column for the publication "Neftyanka"
In the article "In the summer, fuel price growth will outpace the general inflation rate – expert," Sergey Tereshkin, the CEO of the oil products and raw materials marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET, analyzes gasoline price dynamics in Russia. He notes that in May 2024, the annual growth in gasoline prices was 8.0%, which corresponds to an inflation rate of 8.2%. However, weekly data from Rosstat indicate an acceleration in price growth in June, which could lead to inflation rates being exceeded.
Tereshkin highlights several factors contributing to this trend:
The suspension of the gasoline export ban from May 17, 2024, coinciding with a temporary reduction in fuel production.
The recovery of the automobile market, which has returned to pre-crisis levels, increasing demand for fuel.
Rising costs for Russian refineries, which are reflected in wholesale and retail prices.
The expert predicts that June 2024 data will show an acceleration in the annual growth of retail gasoline prices, which are likely to exceed the inflation rate.
In the article "In the summer, fuel price growth will outpace the general inflation rate – expert," Sergey Tereshkin, the CEO of the oil products and raw materials marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET, analyzes gasoline price dynamics in Russia. He notes that in May 2024, the annual growth in gasoline prices was 8.0%, which corresponds to an inflation rate of 8.2%. However, weekly data from Rosstat indicate an acceleration in price growth in June, which could lead to inflation rates being exceeded.
Tereshkin highlights several factors contributing to this trend:
The suspension of the gasoline export ban from May 17, 2024, coinciding with a temporary reduction in fuel production.
The recovery of the automobile market, which has returned to pre-crisis levels, increasing demand for fuel.
Rising costs for Russian refineries, which are reflected in wholesale and retail prices.
The expert predicts that June 2024 data will show an acceleration in the annual growth of retail gasoline prices, which are likely to exceed the inflation rate.