A commentary with a forecast of budget revenues from oil and gas trade for Vedomosti.
In the article "What Will Happen to Oil and Gas Revenues in the Budget by the End of the Year," Sergey Tereshkin, founder and CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, analyzes the dynamics of oil and gas revenues in Russia's federal budget for October 2024. He notes that revenues amounted to 1.2 trillion rubles, which is 55% higher than in September but 25% lower compared to October of last year. The main driver of revenue growth was an increase in collections under the Additional Income Tax (AIT), which reached 491.6 billion rubles in October. Tereshkin also points to the reduction in subsidies for oil refineries, which contributed to the increase in budget revenues.
According to his forecast, the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget for 2024 will remain around 31.7%, but it may decrease to less than 30% next year due to an increase in the base corporate tax rate and a potential drop in oil prices amid rising production in OPEC+ countries.
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A Frosty Winter Could Revive Gas Transit via Nord Stream. Analysis by OPEN OIL MARKET’s Tereshkin for the Vzglyad Newspaper.
The article explores the conditions under which the remaining branch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could become operational, considering the current state of the European gas market. It examines factors influencing gas price increases, including uncertainties surrounding transit through Ukraine, climatic conditions, and competition with Asia for LNG supplies. Expert Igor Yushkov notes that in the event of winter frosts and a gas shortage in Europe, activating the surviving pipeline could offer a solution to stabilize the situation.
Read more at: https://sergeytereshkin.ru/smi/pri-kakom-uslovii-mozhet-zarabotat-utselevshaya-nitka-severnogo-potoka
The article explores the conditions under which the remaining branch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could become operational, considering the current state of the European gas market. It examines factors influencing gas price increases, including uncertainties surrounding transit through Ukraine, climatic conditions, and competition with Asia for LNG supplies. Expert Igor Yushkov notes that in the event of winter frosts and a gas shortage in Europe, activating the surviving pipeline could offer a solution to stabilize the situation.
Read more at: https://sergeytereshkin.ru/smi/pri-kakom-uslovii-mozhet-zarabotat-utselevshaya-nitka-severnogo-potoka
Commentary for Vedomosti on Potential Oil Price Decline
Experts predict a drop in oil prices in 2025, with the average cost of Brent crude expected to fall below $70 per barrel. The primary reason for this is the increase in production from non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, highlights that rising production in these regions is putting downward pressure on prices, despite OPEC+'s efforts to regulate the market. He also points to potential plans by Saudi Arabia to boost oil production, which could further reinforce the downward price trend.
Experts predict a drop in oil prices in 2025, with the average cost of Brent crude expected to fall below $70 per barrel. The primary reason for this is the increase in production from non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, highlights that rising production in these regions is putting downward pressure on prices, despite OPEC+'s efforts to regulate the market. He also points to potential plans by Saudi Arabia to boost oil production, which could further reinforce the downward price trend.
Commented to Rossiyskaya Gazeta on the use of biofuels in aviation.
Starting in 2027, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will introduce mandatory measures to limit CO₂ emissions for international flights. Airlines will be required to offset emissions exceeding 85% of 2019 levels by using carbon credits or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This could lead to an increase in the cost of international flights, estimated at 9% by 2030 and 21% by 2035.
For Russian airlines, additional expenses in 2027 could amount to 20–30 billion rubles, adding 800–1,200 rubles to ticket prices. Currently, the biofuel market in Russia is underdeveloped, but plans are in place to develop it to ensure energy security and diversify energy resources.
Starting in 2027, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will introduce mandatory measures to limit CO₂ emissions for international flights. Airlines will be required to offset emissions exceeding 85% of 2019 levels by using carbon credits or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This could lead to an increase in the cost of international flights, estimated at 9% by 2030 and 21% by 2035.
For Russian airlines, additional expenses in 2027 could amount to 20–30 billion rubles, adding 800–1,200 rubles to ticket prices. Currently, the biofuel market in Russia is underdeveloped, but plans are in place to develop it to ensure energy security and diversify energy resources.
He shared his opinion on the creation of a new gas trading hub in Turkey with the readers of the newspaper "Vzglyad."
Turkey and Russia continue to strengthen their energy cooperation, discussing the creation of a joint gas hub. This project could shift the balance of power in the European energy market, increase the influence of both countries, and ensure more stable gas supplies. What does this project mean for Russia, Turkey, and the global energy market? Read more in our article.
Turkey and Russia continue to strengthen their energy cooperation, discussing the creation of a joint gas hub. This project could shift the balance of power in the European energy market, increase the influence of both countries, and ensure more stable gas supplies. What does this project mean for Russia, Turkey, and the global energy market? Read more in our article.
How the Temporary Easing of Sanctions Will Affect Russian Energy, Banking, and Business Development: An Article by Sergey Tereshkin for "RBC Companies."
The article analyzes the U.S. decision to temporarily ease sanctions on transactions involving Russian banks related to the energy sector. This includes lifting restrictions on major financial institutions like Sberbank and VTB, allowing continued transactions in the oil and gas sector. Such a move could help avoid disruptions in global energy markets and support the stability of Russia's currency flows. The article explores the potential consequences for the economy and energy sector, as well as the significance of this decision for international trade relations.
The article analyzes the U.S. decision to temporarily ease sanctions on transactions involving Russian banks related to the energy sector. This includes lifting restrictions on major financial institutions like Sberbank and VTB, allowing continued transactions in the oil and gas sector. Such a move could help avoid disruptions in global energy markets and support the stability of Russia's currency flows. The article explores the potential consequences for the economy and energy sector, as well as the significance of this decision for international trade relations.
Comment for "Vedomosti" on the increase in budget revenues from oil and gas.
In 2024, the share of oil and gas revenues in Russia's budget is growing faster than anticipated. What is driving this increase, how will it impact the economy, and will the country be able to handle potential risks? Read more about this in our article.
In 2024, the share of oil and gas revenues in Russia's budget is growing faster than anticipated. What is driving this increase, how will it impact the economy, and will the country be able to handle potential risks? Read more about this in our article.
Commented for "Vedomosti" on the prospects for the development of the electric charging station segment in Russia.
The network of electric charging stations (ECS) in Russia is actively expanding: in 2024, the number of stations reached 7,410. Forecasts indicate significant growth in infrastructure by 2030, with over 72,000 ECS expected across the country. An important factor will be the expansion of fast-charging networks. Major players in the market include large energy companies such as RusHydro, Gazprom Neft, and Rosneft, which are investing in the development of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles.
Details are available on Sergey Tereshkin's website.
The network of electric charging stations (ECS) in Russia is actively expanding: in 2024, the number of stations reached 7,410. Forecasts indicate significant growth in infrastructure by 2030, with over 72,000 ECS expected across the country. An important factor will be the expansion of fast-charging networks. Major players in the market include large energy companies such as RusHydro, Gazprom Neft, and Rosneft, which are investing in the development of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles.
Details are available on Sergey Tereshkin's website.
Expert Tereshkin: India Will Remain the Largest Maritime Importer of Russian Oil (Izvestia).
Deliveries of Russian oil to India: the expert assessed the current situation and future prospects. Why has India become the largest buyer of Russian oil, and what challenges lie ahead for exporters? Read more in our article!
Deliveries of Russian oil to India: the expert assessed the current situation and future prospects. Why has India become the largest buyer of Russian oil, and what challenges lie ahead for exporters? Read more in our article!
The reduction of exports from Iran will prevent Brent from falling below $70, says Sergey Tereshkin (Prime news agency).
Against the backdrop of instability in the global oil market, Iran has joined Saudi Arabia's initiatives aimed at supporting prices. The article examines Iran's key measures, the response of other OPEC+ countries, and the potential market consequences. How will these actions affect the supply-demand balance and oil prices? Read the full analysis in our review.
Against the backdrop of instability in the global oil market, Iran has joined Saudi Arabia's initiatives aimed at supporting prices. The article examines Iran's key measures, the response of other OPEC+ countries, and the potential market consequences. How will these actions affect the supply-demand balance and oil prices? Read the full analysis in our review.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of AI-98 gasoline has risen by 17%, significantly outpacing other types of fuel. What is driving this trend, and what does the OPEN OIL MARKET forecast for the future? A column by Sergey Tereshkin for RBC Companies.
Over the past 10 years, fuel excise taxes have tripled, and in 2025, they are expected to increase by another 15%. What will happen to prices, and how can further growth be avoided? A column by Sergey Tereshkin for RBK Companies.